>> i'm mark halperin. >> i'm john heilemann. and with all due respect to those who think hillary clinton's coughing fits are respective of her health -- [coughing] the seventh inning stretch is over and today marks the first day of the final innings of the presidential race. the concession stands are closing and in nine weeks, we will have a winner and a different kind of concession speech. pray this thing doesn't go into extras because there are polls that show the contest has tightened. before we get to that, hillary clinton and donald trump are both on the campaign trail the

day after their various operations nearly collided in ohio. they held events in north carolina, virginia, florida. it sounded a bit like this. sec. clinton: we have 62 days. 62 days to make the case. and i can't do it without you. mr. trump: we came out with a 10 point plan. it is on the website. it has been praised by the veterans groups. sec. clinton: his whole campaign has been one long insult to those that have worn the uniform to protect our most cherished american values. mr. trump: you have illegal immigrants treated better than veterans. >> he trash talk to john mccain, the american hero and p.o.w..

>> it comes down to just a few basic things. it comes down to security and prosperity. the supreme court of the united rates. making sure we maintain the highest standards of integrity in the highest office of the land. john: i was away. you were away. welcome back. good to see you. mark: i am rested and ready. john: the question i have for you as we start the show today, big picture overall. where do they stand? mark: it's pretty much where i thought the race would be when it became clear these were the nominees. hillary clinton had a great advantage early, big head start on fundraising and organizing. but trump had a horrible august, a closed strong. he is within striking distance. with some luck, strong debate,

and a more consistent performance about change in jobs, all of which are possible. john: it's not that he's an inconsistent candidate, you can argue his worst stretch, starting within tacking -- with attacking the kahns. to be anywhere within hailing distance of her is inconceivable and boggles the mind. and as you say, if i were him, i would feel pretty happy with the fact i'm not totally out of this race. mark: voters are starting to pay more attention. it's true. he has an opportunity not to erase the past, but an opportunity to start acting the way he acted in mexico.

the way he acted in a town hall with his family and anderson cooper. the way he has acted on occasion giving speeches and someone who is qualified and ready. the clinton people will not let voters forget all the other things he did, but if his demeanor can be strong, he could keep this a very close race. >> he should be happy where he is given the performance and it is the case that the battleground map right now has clinton either safe or leading. that is more than you need to be president. they say over and over again that she has a lot to get to 270. the structural viewpoint, it goes back to the race. mark: she will be the favorite in this race until the end, if he wins. if she is ahead, she's looking over her shoulder. let's talk about the new polls to frame the coverage today. nbc news and surveymonkey have a new national poll out that says hillary clinton is leading

donald trump amongst registered voters 41% to 37%. gary johnson is at 12%. another national poll by cnn and orc has created a lot of waves today because each shows trump and clinton essentially tied. trump is up two points. or clinton ahead by three, if you look at registered voters. both polls candidates within the margin of error. cnn also has hillary clinton's unfavorably rating rising higher than trump. 56% view her unfavorably compared to 54% that's at the same of the republican nominee. it is an eight point swing since early august. the clinton campaign has pushed back on this poll and dismiss it as an outlier. they are right. the rest of the polls -- it was taken over a holiday weekend.

they do admit that this race has gotten tighter. there is also a 50 state online poll with survey monkey that highlights the fact as john mentioned earlier that hillary clinton has a big electoral college advantage. it is a surprising number of states that show the tossup category. some you expect like ohio and florida but this poll also says states like texas and mississippi which are about as red as tomato soup, are now in play. are these three pulls outliers or indicators? john: if the things you take away from these polls are the snapshot of the world right now. and that's how we treat these polls. the race is relatively tight. clinton has a big advantage in terms of the electoral college

and trump is playing defense in more genuinely red states, clinton is playing defense in blue states. it is an indication of where the race stands today. mark: trump has to assume that there will be a national search -- surge to win states. it might be an indicator that the race has tightened. it could have them up seven or five which is where the democrats think the races. people will overreact to the notion of trump being ahead is statistically. he's not. but the poll suggests the reality, that the race has gotten tighter. john: the trend line is towards tightening but i will go crazy throughout this cycle if we don't tell people that two-point leads are not leads.

it's a tight race. any margin of error, and even broader, this is on a national level -- that electoral map. if you're donald trump and there are deficits that both sides admit that he has in terms of organization and having a real operation. you look at texas, arizona, georgia -- those are states that are -- mark: trump has always been a different kind of candidate with a different kind of coalition. if there is a winning coalition for trump -- in different don't think there is, we can shut down a star running looney tunes. john: apparently our bell is out of commission. i would have run it sooner. the foundation that gave to the attorney general when they were deciding to investigate fraud allegations.

the trunk shady business but this is one of the controversies and accusations that have been dogging the republican nominee as of late. hillary clinton walked to the back of her shiny new campaign plane and rattled off a few of them. sec. clinton: the new york times discovered 650 million dollars owed to foreign banks and foreign entities. we know about his relationship with the kremlin, those are people with whom he has worked. truly, the list goes on and on. the scams, the frauds, the questionable relationship. clearly, his tax returns tell a story that the american people deserve and need to know. and his continuing claim that he can't release his tax return because he's under audit has been disproved repeatedly. john: he is still trying to clean up his stance on deporting illegal immigrants.

he put questions about his health to rest that he plans to release his medical records. thinking about the spectrum there of what we call controversies, which of those matters is likely to stick? mark: the campaign is right. trump is held to less of a standard then clinton right now. partly it is because the press is not treating them equally. trump is doing things that if clinton did, she would be hit a lot harder. we shouldn't do that. everyone should work on fixing that. the immigration thing is the one most likely to stick. things about his personal finance, flip-flopping, the press is not holding him accountable. and we should. trump has basically landed were

a lot of republicans are. we will not talk about the 12 million. you and i have had countless republicans on this show taking that position and that is where he is trying to be. and in this case, held to a tougher standard. most reporters let republicans get away with saying that. john: this is a classic example of what you just said. if this is an actual thing, it sounds like pay for play. >> that is how i used to do it. john: think about there is nothing close to that. the clinton foundation, it is close to this. it is bad. i think the group of issues and potentially russia are things that could stick if more hacking stuff comes up. mark: let's talk about hillary clinton facing her fair share of bad storylines. jason chaffetz sent a letter to the u.s. asking if clinton and

her aides obstructed justice by deleting e-mails from her now very famous server. in addition to the questions still swirling, concerns remain and allegations that donors got access and maybe special treatment from the state department. there are the rumors about clinton's health. which of these is most likely to endure? john: there is no doubt the foundation is the one that's going to be a problem for her going forward. that the foundation has not complied, they have hidden who the foreign donors are.

the reporters are all over this story. nothing has been established that rises to pay for play but there is a lot of gray area and there will be a ton of reporting that goes forward. >> because e-mails were destroyed, we will be -- it is true. they said, there is no quid pro quo. the press says, we can't find the quid pro quo because you destroyed the evidence and the fbi didn't care. the nexus between the e-mails and foundation, there are more releases coming. every time they come now -- i'm not defending this, i just know it to be true because i'm a keen observer of our practice in the media.

every time a new thing about trump comes out, the press's attitude is old story. john: the press should be harder on donald trump but it should not stop being tough on hillary clinton. congress on its way back to work when we come right back. ♪

>> history suggests that winning has less to do with pure performance and is almost all about beating expectations. and on this front, hillary clinton has a problem. the first debate is not until the end of this month but the clinton campaign is reaching out to spin reporters about how great donald trump is. they did a job with the press advisor to suggest that donald is, in fact, the greatest debater.

sec. clinton: i am preparing for the debate. i am doing my homework. donald trump is a self-proclaimed great debater that one everyone of the republican debates. so i take nothing for granted. i think this will be a difficult, challenging debate. which is why i will be thinking hard about what i need to present to the american people. mark: the clinton team is struggling to set expectations. in the next three weeks, can her campaign level the playing field? or will she go in this with the disadvantage of the expectations game? john: there is so little she can do about this because reality is that she is a very good debater. she is going to have higher expectations and she should just embrace them and say, i'm going to go kick is but and that's the end of the story. mark: he's a clown and doesn't do anything.

john: just go for it. mark: i get why they are trying to spin this now but it will be hard to change. i think your way is a good idea. they can't make it equal. but they can basically say to the press, as they have said to me -- don't great on expectations. it's not fair. john: that is the honest way to do it. just argue that they shouldn't be grading on the curve. mark: this is not fun and games. it's the presidency of the united states. they can go out there and show the ready. john: the spin when it flies in the face of what every rope order believes -- mark: donald trump talks for a living. john: it's at odds with what they say about him about every other area of the campaign. say the guy is a clown and we will show he is a clown. mark: i have seen campaigns effectively spin debate expectations. to my amazement, in this case, it goes back.

hillary clinton is not treated fairly by the media. it will be seen as what it is. naked skin. -- spin. john: the bar is high, we should meet that bar. he won't. mark: up next, and selzer -- abnn selzer breaks down the levels after these words from our vaunted sponsors. ♪

>> this morning, the political world woke up and was told the tale of two polls. on one page, the surveymonkey national poll shows hillary

clinton leading donald trump by four points among registered voters. but cnn has trump beating clinton nationally by two points among likely voters. which one of these polls is right? we have the poster in chief -- pollster in chief, ann selzer. let's start with cnn and trump up 45-43. good poll? or are there reasons to be dubious? ann: there are a dozen that we look at and say this is the one i pay attention to. the cnn poll is definitely one of them. you have to take a look and say, what has changed dramatically since their last fall? -- last poll? mark: always good during this transition to talk about likely versus registered. trump has done better with likely voters rather than

registered voters. this is not surprising me where the one he is ahead is likely. why does he do better with likely voters than registered voters? ann: this is the thing that is so important. clinton does better with registered and trump does better with likely. there is a 10 point gap in the population. 10% is registered to vote but do not vote. demographically, that group tends to be younger, urban, lower income. all of those things tilt democratic. if you are suddenly extracting those unlikely voters out of your universe, things are going to tilt more republican. we see that exactly playing out in this poll. john: the clinton campaign says republicans are overrepresented in this sample.

it projects the electorate at 32 percent republican, 28% democrat. that is pretty far out of line from the results in 2008 and 2012. how does that happen? why does that happen? is that the credence the clinton campaign is making about not paying attention to this poll? ann: two points. one, if someone asked me what party i am today, that is a floating variable. there is a lot more that happens on a day-to-day basis than political scientists would like to think. that said, these numbers are different. in that there are about eight percentage points higher on republican dan the same poll -- jan the same poll had one month ago. they had the identical percentage of democrats last month than last month. where the republican advantage has grown is with independents who are now lower in this poll.

they were higher before. trump has a 20 point lead among independents. you have to wonder, if you actually did mess around with party id, how much effect that would have on the bottom line. mark: and where has trump gained besides the fact that independents make up a larger part of the poll? where has trump gained? which groups cause him to be better off? ann: the most important group that he's gained -- and this is what gives it credence. i'm tolerant of polls that look different. he has gained grounds with self identified republicans. a month ago, it was in the 80%. they were supporting donald trump. he is almost even with hillary clinton with about 94% of republicans saying they support him. that is what she gets with democrats.

he has brought some republicans home. that's another reason for his boost. mark: there are tons of reasons to think that is realistic. that the trump put a real emphasis of trying to bring republicans in? ann: that is exactly right. it would be too easy to toss this out. john: the thing about the washington post surveymonkey poll, a really large sample size. talk about the methodology of that poll and what you think of it? ann: surveymonkey has broken new ground. it is an experiment. they have customers that use their hardware or software to conduct surveys of the association numbers. and whatever it might be. on any given day, there are 2 million people that are taking a survey monkey survey.

they take a sample of those and offer them the opportunity to participate in a short political current events questionnaire. that is where they get this huge number. as you can imagine, on a national basis, it is easier to balance things out in terms of the way things are going to look compared to register voters. harder on a state-by-state basis. >> i look forward to a future where we spend much of our day filling out surveys online. up next, we talk about an interview with the president of russia. right after this. ♪ mr. obama: we did talk about

cyber security generally. i not going to talk about specific investigations that are

still alive and active, but i will tell you that we have had problems with cyber intrusions from russia in the past. we are moving into a new era where a number of countries have significant capacity, and frankly, we have more capacity than anybody both offensively and defensively. but our goal is not to suddenly in a cyber realm duplicate a cycle of escalation that we saw when it comes to other arms races in the past. mark: president obama yesterday describing his talk with russian president vladimir putin at the g-20 summit. not everyone will have spent time with vladimir putin. what is it like to be in his presence? >> i have spent time with him in private, off the record things, and in some ways, he is more macho in off the record things. he is courteous. people scurry around him.

there are retinues. buildings are cleared. things even obama cannot even manage. it is implicit power, almost medieval. mark: let's look at when you asked president putin if he would be happy to see donald trump elected the next president of the united states. mr. putin: you know, after all, with all of the shock tactics of both candidates, they are both very smart people. they understand which buttons you need to press.

mark: it seems to a lot of people in the united states that putin clearly prefers trump to clinton. did that come through? >> that was my point. putin was saying i don't care who the american people choose. but if you look at the record, putin has said he thinks clinton was trying to get rid of him in 2011, organizing protests against him. for him, it is beyond the next essential crisis. donald trump has used more or less homoerotic descriptions of putin. the idea that putin could sit there and say a really don't care between this woman who wants to overthrow me and this man who seems to be in love with tiny bits of me. putin loves stirring things up,

but the advantage of hillary is he knows roughly how to deal with her. from his interview, maybe having a hillary whom he has sullied a bit is a good way to go ahead. john: you asked him about the allegations that russia was involved in hacking democratic party e-mails. here is what he had to say. >> is that really important? does it matter who hacked the data from the campaign headquarters? the important thing is the content that was given to the public. there should be discussion about this and there is no need to distract the public's attention to a search for who did it.

but i want to tell you again, i don't know anything about it. on a state level, russia had nothing to do with this. mark: hillary clinton clearly paying attention to your interview, because yesterday, she responded to what you said. ms. clinton: when putin was asked about it, he could barely muster the energy to deny it. in fact, he went on to say it was a good thing the dnc had been hacked, and of course, the intelligence consensus is it was hacked by russian intelligence. so, we are facing a very serious concern. we have never had a foreign adverserial power be involved in a dnc hack. john: he was sort of cavalier. he said i don't care who wins

but the fact that the democratic party was hacked is a good thing. parse all of that. >> he is playing very well with it. it adds to his reputation as someone who can do these things. on the other hand, he has a point. hillary is trying very hard to turn the conversation from what is in the e-mails and what they say about her personality to the question of who actually hacked them. there is an element -- like many things putin says -- there is a kernel of truth. he is a very good analyzer of the strengths and weaknesses of people. he senses this is a weakness for hillary, so he is pushing, the

way he does, very opportunistically. mark: does he seem to have a handle of what going on with the american election? >> it's a strange relationship. his version of russia is a rush of its equal to america. he grew up -- the russia he is harkening back to is one where the biggest meeting every year was russia meets america to discuss missiles or whatever. that is the world he wants to be seen as. when he looks at america, he is angry about various things america has done and he knows about the shock tactics and all of these things, which he would merrily use himself. at the same time, he would very much like to be a player. the only condition of the interview was we had to ask him at the beginning about the economic forum of the g-20. after that, he said ask me anything. he is a bit more confident that way.

john: other heads of state stay out of american politics because if they seem to be leaning one direction and the other person wins, they have problems down the line. is there a likelihood there is a problem with hillary is president and he seems to be on trumps side? >> he is already aware of that. look at obama. he has been opportunistic whenever he thinks obama has left a vacuum. he has jumped in. he would do the same thing with hillary. people on trump's side are trying to say he gave money to the foundation, which is also a clever way of reminding people that hillary has one or two problems there as well. mark: did he exhibited any traits in the room that you would say are positive human traits?

was he funny, charming? >> when you score a blow at him, he smiles with some degree of "i'll get you later." [laughter] i talked about the dynasties in america, the bushes, the clintons, and whether that was something he would like to follow. it has a degree of shakespearean element about it. he has run one of the most difficult countries in the world for 16 years. very few people have managed to do that, especially in a place where if you lose power, it is somewhat more brutal. mark: thank you again. you can see john's full interview with vladimir putin on our website, bloomberg.com. if you are watching us in washington, d.c., as always, you can listen to us on the radio it at 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

john: people like to say that labor day is the turning point for the general election. we bring in an nbc news correspondent to talk us through how donald trump is doing. she joins us from greenville, north carolina, where donald trump will hold a rally later on tonight. a big national security day today. tomorrow as well. this is a place the clinton campaign thinks they have a huge advantage.

how does the trump campaign feel about that? are they playing defense or do they think they can make this a winning issue for them? >> they don't think she has an advantage on national security, and there is some polling that agrees with donald trump. military families like donald trump better than hillary clinton. also, folks afraid of terror, making that their number one concern, say donald trump will be stronger on terror than hillary clinton. they don't believe clinton has an advantage, especially with donald trump being so hard lined when it comes to fighting isis, saying he will bomb the hell out of them, etc. they believe he will appeal to the part of the electric that does not believe hillary clinton to be a strong leader. they do not agree with the handling of affairs between america and the middle east right now. donald trump has been talking

very strongly when it comes to national security in general since day one. this is not necessarily something that they believe hillary clinton can defeat them on alone. mark: when it comes to the transparency wars, the trump campaign talks on a daily basis about hillary clinton being secretive. yesterday, he brought reporters onto his plane, matching what she was doing. and he said he would release his medical records. are they playing offense or defense? >> i think it is defense, actually. they say every day that hillary clinton does not speak to the press, is hiding from them, refusing to hold a press conference. yesterday, she held a 25 minute gaggle with her press corps on the plane she rides with him on. donald trump does not have that. one or two reporters have been charged with following donald trump for the day and have been told they can fly on his jet. that's unprecedented. he was asked if he would make

that a regular thing and he said basically, maybe, maybe not. i think they are trying to match hillary clinton, at least the appearance of doing so. in terms of medical records, that was new. we will see what happens. as of now, it does seem to be a whole lot of talk. john: thank you for coming on the show. coming up, for the second day in a row, hillary clinton is taking questions from the press. we will talk about that and more after this. ♪

john: welcome back, loyal viewers. joining us now is the editor of national review and a washington post reporter. the ladies are in washington. thank you for joining us. happy fall-ish to both of you. let me ask you about the accessibility wars. what do you think is going on with both campaigns? in some ways, they are both more open and accusing each other of not being open. >> clearly, this drumbeat of stories and e-mails being released about the state department and the clinton foundation are taking their toll. clinton advisers are aware of this. one thing they wanted to take off the table was the attack he had against her that she was "hiding" from the press. that is something they have tried to do definitively today with several opportunities for the press to chat with her. i think we will clearly see them continue that line. she is trying to flip the

transparency argument back onto trump by emphasizing his refusal to release his tax returns, something she continues to hammer him on. as much as possible, she wants to get the spotlight off questions about her transparency and accusations of secrecy, and back to his finances. john: when you think about what hillary clinton is attacking donald trump over, one is accessibility. the other is the connection to russia, which we talked about earlier in the show. which one do you think the campaign feels more vulnerable over? >> really, they should feel incredibly vulnerable to both, but currently, it is the russia issue. it played a role in trump nudging out paul manafort. the drumbeat of that makes republicans nervous, and it eats into whatever advantage trump

has on national security. the idea that he is cozy with dictators and would not be a presence on the world scene. both campaigns are hostile to the press in different ways. right now, that is an equalizer between them. mark: campaign fundraising, super pac fundraising, on the ground organizing, tv ad organizing, where do republicans stand today and are they going to be close enough by election day to say those things didn't cost them? >> i think if you had told us when the cycle began that the democratic nominee would be ahead of the republican counterpart financially on the

ground and on the air, no one would have believed you. but that is the case today. trump really did not have a fund-raising operation in place when he became the nominee. it took a while to get that going. they finally are raising money in conjunction with the rnc. they have had a lot of success online. but getting so much money late in the game is not as effective as raising money throughout the process, as we have seen with clinton. she has a huge advantage on the airwaves and on the ground. that is something i think has republicans incredibly worried. one thing that has not helped is that trump himself has proven the need for some traditional campaign tactics like television ads. that has made it difficult for some people who support him to write the big checks to get glossy tv ads. mark: are they going to be close enough to parity by election day

that it doesn't cost them the race? >> to refer to the trump operation as a campaign i think is generous right now. by every metric, they are getting slaughtered. clinton has a modern campaign. people like to say campaigns are startup organizations. clinton has that area trump doesn't. he is one man giving rallies in one state on one day or another. a question will be, did republicans lose because people didn't give money or did people not give money because they thought trump was a losing candidate? john: it's obviously really important that the rnc is taking on a lot of functions of the trump campaign that a campaign would normally do on its own. what is the relationship right now between trump tower and the

republican national committee? >> it is and always has been strained. trump is pooh-poohing a lot of things candidates have traditionally done. mitt romney was an unbelievable fundraiser. he went out and asked people for money. trump has not done that. he has relegated that task to the rnc. we have evidence of how well this is working. the rnc raised half to one third of what it raised in july, 2012, july, 2008. it is working abysmally. it is really hurting republicans across the board and down the ballot. contrary to the reports out there, i think reince priebus is

going to be in a very vulnerable position in november. mark: is it possible wealthy conservatives will start writing big checks? >> sure. we often see in the final six weeks of the campaign, a lot of big money comes in. but this money is much less valuable than early money. advertising rates go through the roof. super pacs are at a disadvantage. they have to pay more than the campaign. they will pay at a greater premium later in the race. and views of these candidates have solidified. if voters are undecided about who to support, it is not because they don't have enough information. they almost have to much information. they just can't decide which of the bad choices they are going to go with. i think it will be hard to persuade a small group of people that has yet to form an opinion. mark: and early voting starts soon in a lot of places.

john: sticking with super pacs, priorities usa has been doing fairly well in fundraising. are things picking up there or slowing down as we get closer to election day? >> so far, the fundraising has been pretty consistent. we will see the august numbers on september 20. they have a large goal of raising i think a couple hundred million dollars. we will see if they reach that. there is no question that wealthy democratic voters feel much more motivated to invest in this presidential campaign than wealthy republicans. there is a huge disparity, one we have not really seen into cycles on that front. mark: thank you both for joining us as always. we will be right back. ♪

john: what did you most miss about new york while you were away? mark: thai food. fonzie. john: we are looking forward to the fun. mark: weeks and weeks. incredible debates. john: in the meantime, you can watch the full interview with vladimir putin on bloomberg.com. coming up, emily chang and "bloomberg west." until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

♪ >> it is wednesday, september 7. i am angie lau. this is "trending business". ♪ angie: we will be live in singapore and sydney this hour. first, here is what we are watching. has one temporary protection from creditors. u.k. aia is offering helping hand, saying they should negotiate a free-trade