incredible cost for corporations that have big fleets of trucks that will be forced to do this, how difficult it will be. think about the supply chain crisis we had during the pandemic. if you can't cart goods around efficiently. we'll see that, then some. taylor: some good news if there is any technology, development costs battery costs dropped in the last 10 years. they're expecting to decline further by 2030. they still need to come down a lot in price to make this economically viable. brian: come down in weight. even if it is cheaper to develop them, if they're huge and heavy. that is a problem. jackie: what do you do after? partially recycled but the rest goes somewhere. brian: quit asking inconvenient questions, jackie. taylor: who is asking great questions? charles payne. charles: we know how the island of miss at this time toys came to be t was california and

restrictions. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." traching right now, for me the market resolve to move higher, even in the aftermath of another giant bank failure ahead of this huge fed cities in my mind that could really set the tone. this week i think will set the tone for the rest of the year. it comes down to oxymoron, dovish rate hike? gary kaltbaum has within worried. michael has been bearish and dan fitzpatrick is looking for something to buy. we have all three on deck. good-bye to the stretch limo and say hello to the repo man. what this says about today's economy. joe lavorgna will break it down. danielle shay shows how microsoft could set us free from the bear market. what you should expect on the big earnings report from apple. economists magazine, giving america props, will we stop trying to be like europe?

all that and much more on "making money". ♪. charles: you know you can hear the drum roll in the back, right? it is the week we've been waiting for since the end of the last fed meeting, right? 25 basis point rate hike. that is conventional wisdom. there is no debate there the real debate whether there will be a dove irk or hawkish rate hike. goldman sachs is looking for a hawkish rate hike. that is really what it boils down to. meantime as we wait, i want you to take a look at this market, folks. what is killing it? large cap stocks. trouble with the screen, large cap stocks, year-to-date, growth, core value, all doing well. last week, growth, core value, all doing well. what is really suffering? small caps of all sizes, right? but what i really love about last week and so far today was how the market rallied into the close, on a friday on pretty strong volume. i don't know, seems like it is

ready to go up. i want to bring in as the first guest, one of our favorites, gary k. we spoke last week, think at this was tuesday, you were concerned rightfully so. the market was breaking down. it broke down even more. we had fantastic rally into the week, into the weekend which is kind of unusual. what does this say? what do you make after turn around? what do you think about the resolve of these markets? >> rules of the bullish phases closes, strong closes are good. rules after bearish phase, bad closes are bad, it is as simple as that. the thing last week i came into the week advance declines on the nasdaq was at a new bear market low. a lot of things were really busting down and then the dow dropped 600 points in two days. the transports drop a thousand point in two days. in two days, the dow back up 800. transports up 700. trading like a penny stock.

i think what happened here great reactions by megacap names like microsoft, facebook. i still call it facebook. thursday at 11:30 i believe the market caught the wind that first republic would have a bailout and leave no doubt, it's a bailout. i think that's what did the trick. the market has been nothing but better since. but keep in mind it is big cap land. the russell 2000. nothing is happening. names like hershey's is doing the trick. mcdonald's doing the trick. that is the place you want to be right now. and i'm just stalking things as we head through earnings season. charles: i brought up size and styles chart table. for me it is fascinating. it tells you everything you need to know. again it has been about large cap names. is this because these companies have pricing power, these companies don't need to raise money, these are the companies insulated in this sort of prerecessionary period? >> fundamentally you hit the nail on the head but as far as

the market they're also the most liquid. so when people are worried about a first republic and other banks and who knows what's next, they will go to the areas, the biggest names, the most liquid, so if things go awry they can get out much more, much easier. but it also feeds on itself. when they see the reactions as i mentioned, hershey's and mcdonald's, microsoft, facebook, these are megacap names. when we see that working they will tend to go that way, tends to feed on itself, exactly what you're seeing here. get a chart of the dow, put it next to a chart of the russell 2000 you will see the dow is hussein bolt. you will see me as the russell 2000. charles: hey, i know you used to be pretty good on the track back in the day. before i let you go it's weird, right? dovish hike? i mean does the fed hike and give us that wing wink and we're off to the races maybe? >> i haven't spoke to powell

lightly but i gather a quarter of a point. i think something, you know how they parse the words whether they say was or is? charles: yeah. >> i gather we'll see something to the effect of, i don't think they will say we will sit but now we can start watching. we'll take it from there. if they say we got more to go, i'm not so sure the market is ready for that. i don't think they are going to do that. remember the 10-year at 3.5 and change, this at five. they're behind the other way. they can afford to do nothing for a couple meetings at this juncture. charles: that is remarkable reversal as well, the bond yields, looked like a month ago, looked like they wouldn't stop going up but now they look like they won't stop going down. gary, appreciate it. the tension is really thick. you can really cut it. it is not only because the fed could unlock what i think is coiled spring in this market, also because we have two major indices are in the shadow of major resistance points. i want to bring in stock market

mentor, dan fitzpatrick. dan, 2023 trends remain in place. large cap stokes, winning, small cap stocks losing. pick up on the conversation before we talk about breakouts. is there any reason to fight that for folks to go bottom fishing in small caps right now? >> you know, frankly, i think, i don't think you want to go into small caps yet. this is why. as gary just mentioned, you know, they're underperforming and there is three way as stock can go, go up, could go down, or it could go sideways. all i care about, anybody should care about making money on stocks going up. here the small caps frankly they're still going sideways. and if the fed, you know, we can talk about the fed more if you would like but until the pivot these small and even mid-cap stocks, you know, they have got bonds that they have got to roll. they need money. charles: right. >> as long as the money is really expensive they're going to stay down and the megacaps

are going to go. i think that is kind of what pulled the market up this last week, right up against the sealing. >> no one is, would think anyone is expecting a pivot, right? i think the 2023 pivot a pause. >> if the fed, if you come away wednesday thinking that the market thinks the fed is pausing could that be what springs us forward? >> yeah, i think it can. you know, we've been tieing to predict when the fed's going to pause for how many rate hikes lately? charles: right. >> you kind of have to expect the expected but, if they give any indication that they're going to slow or maybe this is the last one for a while, we really could see a fire lit under stocks. and at that point, you're going to see these breakouts on the s&p, the nasdaq, composite, the nasdaq 100. charles: right. >> the largest cap stocks other than financials. they will probably bring the small and mid-caps along with them. so, as soon as they give you

that sense -- charles: go through these, dan, two things i want to get before we wrap up. >> sure. charles: breakout point, s&p 4700, nasdaq composite 12,269, give or take. breaking through 4200 on closing basis, where do you think potentially it could take us? >> well, let me look at a chart real quick, so i'm not guessing, pardon me, i would say we'll go at least, i'm looking 4600. charles: oh,. >> 4600 pretty much. charles: i like that. i like that. >> here's the thing, we have so much money in money markets now, because of the regionals and all of that stuff and just the caution, there is so much money on the sidelines, where is it going to go if it wants to invest? charles: right. >> it is going to go into stocks. i think that will be one hell of a lift, charles, i really do, if we see that. charles: less than a minute ago,

nasdaq, 12 thou thousand -- 12,269, another pen% as well? >> i would look for another 10%. i think we're ready to be led on fire. all we need for the fed to take the foot off the gas an tell us that they're doing. >> i hope so, man, i hope so. listen, i think paul volcker, jr., proved the point. thanks a lot, dan. microsoft, apple, everyone is kind of saying you know, to a degree that maybe, maybe they represent too much of this stock market because they are 39% of the rally this year that we've seen. in fact, so-called "faang" names, you know, plus fang plus names, they have made up 80% of the move in the s&p 500 this year. the dominance of a handful of stocks, it masks what has been a pedestrian market for anything else. most other stocks are flat, even down. i want to bring in piper chandler chief investment strategist are.

we haven't seen the weighting of two stocks, even going back to the great financial crisis, the tech bubble, some people say the nifty 50 back in the '60s or '70s, mike, i bring this up because you posted some great charts in your most recent piece. i have one of them up here with the megacaps, large caps, mid-caps, microcaps. what is the narrative? what are these charts saying that we should interpret? >> it says don't trust the message from the large cap indices like s&p 500 and nasdaq which have been lifted by a very set of narrow names. you want to look more broadly for signals for the market and the economy. it is like looking at economy saying what is gdp and using that as a measuring stick for all sectors of the economy which you would never do. so you got to look underneath the surface. i think why is that this big bifurcation taking place?

investors have been rotating into quality stocks since february and continue to do so. charles: right. so of course, your large, mid-cap, other names are down there. also in that piece, there was a piece from piper last week. title says, it is not time, it is not time to focus on valuations. you know, you just mentioned quality. that is one of the words going around. also coming into the year, everyone said you had to be in value. but the question is, these days what is value and what's growth? because i pointed this out, you see earnings last week, some of these names, chipotle, pepsi, hershey, these names had huge moves. top-line growth was significantly more than meta, google, netflix. you look at valuations, chipotle currently trading almost 56 times. forward 49 times. i don't even know how people figure out what is value these days and what is growth these days? >> i think ultimately those are two very narrow definitions and

broad, should say very broad definitions actually that everyone can have slightly flew nuanced difference how they define that money goes into companies with good fundamentals, good pricing power, good economies of scale, that can survive better in a environment where inflation and interest rates are a little higher for longer. that is why you're seeing the move into staples, some companies you mentioned which are likely to hold on to pricing power longer than any other sector by definition. they're staples. larger cap growth companies which have the economies of scale, that small microcaps, mid-caps don't have which is why they're not participating. so the point of that note was to say, that was published by me is to say focus on fundamentals overvaluation because that is where the money is going to go. do i want to buy a cheap auto stock today if we're worried about a downturn? no thanks. charles: i always tell people sometimes a cheap stock is cheap

for a reason, right? >> exactly. charles: i get a lot of guests, they love the cheap ones. it might be cheap for a legitimate reason. you have had the lowest target, one of the lowest targets on the street. are you rethinking that at all? what are you expecting from the fed this week? how are you looking to make any adjustments? >> no, no, unless, last time on the show i was talking about the target. what is the catalyst for that? we get into recession later this year. as unemployment claims rise, sustainably rise which hasn't started yet. i think that the story plays out. until we get to the point. we want to focus on quality growth stocks, less sickly sensitive, better cash flow and balance sheets. a some mentioned year-to-date are in the long portfolio we recommend clients hold or buy. we've been avoiding companies that are more risky, more leveraged, more sensitive to the economy such as small caps or cyclicals. so we would continue to focus on that.

charles: right. >> understanding -- the big market call is going to be a function of whether or not we go into hard landing. we believe we will but that is it still a handful of months out. charles: sounds good. ironic to be defensively positioned and be up this much. a heck of a one-two punch. michael, thanks a lot. appreciate it. >> my pleasure. good seeing you. charles: coming up stretch limos? they're out. unfortunately the repo man is back. what does that tell us about a recession? tweet me your thoughts @cvpayne. any job more dangerous than repossessing a harley? i would like to know that as well. you heard sell in may, go away? i have my next guest who has information that could tweak your view on that. you want one foot in the market. ryan detrick has details. sell in may and sick sell in june? we'll be back.

♪. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants changes your struggle with missing teeth forever. it changes how you eat, how you feel, and how you enjoy life. it changes your smile and how others smile at you. clearchoice network doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours, too.

because a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation. >> woman: why did we choose safelite? we're always working on a project. while loading up our suv, one extra push and... crack! so, we scheduled at safelite.com. we were able to track our technician and knew exactly when he'd arrive. we can keep working! ♪ synth music ♪ >> woman: safelite came to us. >> tech: hi, i'm kendrick. >> woman: replaced our windshield, and installed new wipers to protect our new glass. that's service on our time. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪

these days, our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app or upgrade to the speed that's right for you today.

>> i venture to say you're in the market, been in the market two or three months, there are a lot of axioms, things like that,

you heard. one i know you heard, particularly in the earlier in the year, sell in may and go away. according to word from the carson group may through october has delivered the smallest six month gain. we do see that, they acknowledge that. but is sitting you automatically do, should sell and go away? i want to bring in carson group chief market strategist ryan detrick. you put a whole lot of work like you do a whole lot of things. your main goal is to let people know, it may have the worst six month average since 1950, you don't necessarily want to go away in may, do you? >> not this year, we think, charles. thanks for having me back. those six months are up about 1.7% on the s&p back to 1950. here is what is kind of interesting, chars, if you look at it. the last send years, those six months have been higher eight of them. may, charles, may from the s&p, has been higher nine of the last 10 years. we know last year what happened? we saw a big selloff, sell in

may, go away. here is the last point on this, if you're down for the year, bad start to the year, hike last year, sell in may gets worse. if you're up for the year, sell in may is up 4% next six months. bottom line, saying we're going higher, we see little reason to change that. sell in may makes sense but we think you should be invested in here. charles: let me switch gears here. earnings season we're halfway through it. this is another area you push back in wall street. almost everyone, 90% of the folks said, this last two weeks was supposed to torpedo this market. instead it has been a booster shot. >> yeah, you're right. we've been saying at the carson group we don't see a recession. i know all the worries that are this. you see what just happened so far, about half companies reported. 80% beat, fairly good guidance, literally making eight month highs as we speak. the previous guest talked about the weak breadth. i want to point this out. literally as you and i sit here,

dow jones industrial average advance-decline is all-time high. this s&p china shot from all-time high. to say a couple stocks going up that is accumulation of stocks going up and down. that is wildly bullish. says there is a lot more breadth than i think people give the market credit for. that is another reason not to sell in may. >> i guess the lynchpin here will be the fed, jay powell and company, this week. policen, everyone knows there will be a 25 basis-point hike. a lot of folks thought he would stop. they stopped last time. they didn't. gave themselves enough excuses to make this the last hike. how are you modeling that? >> we think, this is probably the last one, 25 basis points f i were jay powell i probably wouldn't do it. i'm not jay powell. we think, we're going back in history, charles, look at the last hike in the cycle. seven of them since 1980. one year later, after the last hike, s&p higher seven times, up 12% in average. 2,000 is in there. there were times that things

didn't work out. to us the consumer is still strong, inflation is coming back, fed takes foot off pedal, with broad participation, i would be not surprised if the fed doesn't hike anymore, the stocks are a up a good deal. charles: model says fed may cut rates before the year's oaf. most people say november. i personally don't want to get the economy to the position where the fed cuts fast. that means they have broken too many things. what is your thoughts on that? maybe a pause, being enough to get this market going, not the notion of rate cuts which i think if they come too soon would be an sos for the entire economy? >> absolutely. we wrote about that as recently on our blog for more than 130 carson partners. we talked about, once they start cutting that is when you got to worry. we still see a strong economy. we'll worry about that this year. we're in the camp they're not cutting this year. the consumer way too strong for

that to happen. if they do we expect to worry but we don't expect that, charles. charles: ryan, you have been spot on, congratulations keep coming on the show with, we appreciate it. >> i will, thank you. >> coming up, the banking scare is it now in our rear view mirror? i will ask sarah kunz at 2:30. it is the end of the road for stretch limos. no one is using them anymore. there is a couple reasons for that. they are calling in the repo man. there is not enough of them to go around. joe lavorgna explains what that means for your portfolio and next. >> i have some contacts. ♪.

(man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? (woman) what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (avo) now you can with once-weekly mounjaro. mounjaro helps your body regulate blood sugar, and mounjaro can help decrease how much food you eat. 3 out of 4 people reached an a1c of less than 7%. plus people taking mounjaro lost up to 25 pounds.

mounjaro is not for people with type 1 diabetes or children. don't take mounjaro, if you're allergic to it, you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer, or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop mounjaro, and call your doctor right away, if you have an allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, vision changes, or diabetic retinopathy. serious side effects may include pancreatitis and gallbladder problems. taking mounjaro with sulfonylurea or insulin raises low blood sugar risk. tell your doctor if you're nursing, pregnant, or plan to be. side effects include nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea which can cause dehydration and may worsen kidney problems. (woman) i can do diabetes differently with mounjaro. (avo) ask your doctor about once-weekly mounjaro. what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you. first, there's an idea and you do something about it

for the first time with godaddy. then before you know it, (it is a life changer...) you make your first sale. small business first. never stopped coming. (we did it!) and you have a partner that always puts you first way. (no way!) start today at godaddy.com. my little family is me, aria, and jade. just the three of us girls. i never thought twice about feeding her kibble. but about two years ago, i realized she was overweight. she was always out of breath. that's when i decided to introduce the farmer's dog to her diet. it's just so fresh that she literally gets bubbles in her mouth.

now she's a lot more active, she's able to join us on our adventures. and we're all able to do things as a family. ♪ get started at betterforthem.com lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges. i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. ♪. charles: all right, folks, first republic, well it bit the dust, oops, he did it again. so we're first republic they're out, right? and there was a desperate attempt to save them. but it doesn't work out, in

steps jamie dimon, just massive, they put up $10.6 billion, instantly, instantly they have a $7.4 billion profit. jpmorgan chairs, one reason they're up big time today. it feels like maybe the banking scare is over, right? let's find out. let's ask former white house chief economist, smb chief economist joe lavorgna. joe, they broke all the rules. jpmorgan is too big, yadi yada. jamie dimon made a phone call. it feels like, you know, i know some regional banks are under a little pressure but feels like everyone is breathing a big sigh of relief. >> yes, rightly so, charles. first there is a couple issues. there is deposit flight which the treasury, the administration broadly speaking, federal reserve backstop ad lot of these depositors. certainly first republic was systemic this broker-dealer is -- charles: is it really systemic? >> that is the theory. we really don't want to see what happens if we let a lot of these

depositors get their money back. charles: everyone is covered no matter what up 250,000. >> for those banks, sb signature, that is not true, but for everybody else. charles: right. >> leaving the systemic issues aside, seems to me, charles, that the key problem here is the fact that short rates have gone up massively. so you can put your money in t-bills, completely safe, liquid. charles: right. >> earn 5%, 5% plus. charles: money markets. >> even t-bills. money markets trade a little under t-bills. charles: for the average person watching us -- >> will go to money markets. a. charles: a lot easier to pull off. >> exactly. as the fed raises, fed raises rates again this week, those t-bill rates will go up, money market rates will go higher. that is actually encouraging the deposit flight out of banks. there is systemic issue, if deposits leave the banks, those banks have to call in loans, make fewer loans, stop revolving lines of credit. in other words the problem as

short rates go higher, that is causing the economy itself to steadily weaken. charles: three banks we are talking about catered to very wealthy period. it is so weird. not like the bank of butte. you look at first republic, the hamptons, beverly hills, silicon valley, silicon valley bank, richest zip code in america. signature bank, new york city, the richest people in new york city. was there also a element of arrogance that went along with this? >> maybe. charles: i feel like there is a lot of blame to place along the way. >> there is, what scares me the most is the fed being so aggressive in raising rates that yield curve inverting, you're correct, charles, these tended to be much higher-end clientele. if we overregulate that will come back on middle and lower income americans. charles: i'm with you on that. >> small medium size banks, community bankers if they suffer from more regulation, imprudent

regulation that is not helping anybody. that will not help the economy. they will be victim of other things which they had little control over. charles: i am glad you brought that up. the report out of the fed came out last week was despicable. they took little blame. mentioned trump era rules. >> this had nothing to do with the biden administration. these policies were bipartisan. going after the fact that is just not right. charles: let me asking but something interest. last week i go outside this is times square. used to be back in the day you saw a lot of limos. i saw a limo, what is that? if it was a dodo bird, i would recognize the dodo bird before a limo. limos are out. i don't know if rich people, repos, harley-davidson lost $52 million in part because not enough repo folks to get the bikes back. i'm not an economist, when i see stuff like that, i'm thinking we're heading into the wrong direction.

>> this comes back to the thrust of this conversation. if you look at senior loan officers, data through january, you saw banks are tightening credit for credit cards, for autos. this is small, medium, large banks for reasons you cite. there is a lot of stress. it is happening with the unemployment rate at 3 1/2%. can you imagine what happens if it went only to four 1/2 or five? this tightening in standards is likely to accelerate because of what the fed is doing. that will cause more dislocation, probably more repossessions. charles: what do we have? do i have enough time? i got one quick one for you, this buy now pay later thing is an intriguing phenomenon. it was supposed to change the world. we'll see. it has come down a little bit but there is a survey out what people use it for. 34% said groceries. this is one of these anecdotal things. i keep hearing about how powerful the consumer is, 1.3 trillion in excess savings, we can't be powerful if people are using buy now, pay later to

eat? >> all you have to do, charles, look at consumer confidence and the consumer confidence numbers show tremendous stress with u.s. households, with very poor expectations of future job income growth. that shouldn't happen with unemployment where it is. people are suffering. borrowing money for essentials in many cases. charles: glad you were here. >> thank you, charles. charles: the banking scare revolved around the rich enclaves in california, silicon valley. i'm really curious, why that, that was the genesis of it all? i want to bring in cleo capital, managing director sarah kuntz. first of all, sarah, do you think the banking scare is over? >> i don't know if the scare is over but on the fundamentals i do think we're in a better place. you were asking sort of why these rich cities? reality these are not banks that banked for the most part people. in svb's case, certainly

signature, these banks were banking companies and these companies did not have insured deposits. they were much faster to move their money that piece of this for the mid-sized regional banks is hopefully over. charles: now we're talking about tighter lending standards, you know, some worrisome signs out there, out there. we got the fed, right? then against the backdrop of all of this, the ipo world. i just read today, that ipos were up 54% from last year. there was not a single offering last month. that sells us how bad last year was. all of sudden, arm limits will come public t was a great company when it was publicly-traded before. are you seeing signs of life that maybe the ipo market can come back? >> people would who have for the ipo market to come back, right? investment bankers are getting laid off. venture capitalists need to return money to their investors. these founders want to, you know, finally be public company

ceos. yes this is a lot of interest on it on the supply side. the big question is the demand there, right? with interest rates still up, if you get a lot of yield right now just buying t-bills, right, doing money market funds are you really interested in rolling the dice on an ipo everybody wants the ipo window to open back up that does not mean it is going to. summer is not a big time for ipos. at this point we'll look to see what the fall holds. we'll see in the next month or two, how many people start to raise their hand, go out and do a road show but i don't think we'll have a traffic jam in the ipo window anytime soon. charles: let me ask you a question. there is breaking news about another representative, this is congress, lois frankel. she apparently sold a bunch of first republic on march 16th. we know congress has been involved. the fdic, federal reserve,

trying to work behind the scenes. it just seems, i want your opinion whether or not their active involvement, lawmakers, hurts the investment or helps? i got to believe it hurts that it gives people, gives investing less credibility. feels like they have the inside scoop on everything. so she sells all of hers, a lot of people caught holding the bag since then? >> march 16th, most people wanted to sell their stock but reality it is an ongoing distraction to have members of congress able to actively trade stocks. they tend to do a little too bell and people don't like the way it feels. the reality is, we're paying them, we elect them, we pay them to do a job. they should be putting, i think, their investments into a blind trust and you know, focusing on their day job. you know, put it in the s&p 500 and improve the economy by your legislating and make money that way. you know, i think that is an

issue that is getting more and more interest. i do think eventually we're going to probably see the rules shift in that direction, just because, you know, i think people are sick and tired of watching their congress people get richer than they are. charles: it is nuts. they go there with no money, come out as millionaires. sarah, if i had a tambourine i would play it loud while you were giving us that answer. talk to you real soon. coming up, my takeaway why we need to stop saying we should be more like europe. even "the economist" magazine admits as much. should we officially declare the bear market dead real soon? there is one stock that will make it happen. danielle shay is here to tell us which one right after this. e liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. with the money we saved, we tried electric unicycles. i think i've got it!

doggy-paddle! only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ (water splashing) hey, dad... hum... what's the ocean like? ♪ are there animals living underwater? ♪ is the ocean warm? yeah, it can be very warm. ♪ you were made to remember some days forever. we were made to help you find the best way there. ♪

i can't, you know, thank my parents enough for making sure that this connection is here. one of the things that my mother told me when she was in the hospital, she didn't tell me, actually, she couldn't speak at the time, but she wrote it down... "go see alicia." oh, my goodness. you know, and there was never a time that you were too busy. there was never a time you said i'll call you back, you know. i needed to be there to carry you through, just like, you know, some of my friends carried me through.

♪. charles: so could we officially declare the death of the bear market very soon? like maybe this week? joining me now simpler trading director of options danielle shay. danielle, i'm reading your newsletter, all of sudden i read this line, once microsoft gets to a new high, 336 or give or take it could carry the entire market along for the ride. it would be the end of the bear market. really? >> charles, when you look at microsoft, microsoft has tremendous power in the stock market because even just by weighting alone, when it moves it is going to move the s&p, it is going to move the nasdaq and then if you look at various sectors and industry groups, you also have microsoft leading those, not to mention a long list of different etfs. so yes, when microsoft breaks through overhead resistance zones like it did when it broke through the august resistance zone, that is a significant price movement upwards t can carry stocks higher. >> yea, let's go microsoft.

i have my pompoms on, let's go. overall earnings season, you have to be somewhat pretty thrilled what we've seen so far? >> i'm happy with it. it has been a strange earnings season, particularly the vix, if you look at the vix, it is down to january 2022 levels. that is insane. normally we see the vix trade higher going into "faang" earnings season. we're at time of low volatility with everything that happened. we just had another bank collapse. when you look what occurred this earnings season, we had a situation it was going to be -- we were set up to fear what would happen this quarter and it hasn't turned out to be that bad so far so we're continuing to see the stock market trade higher. >> amazing how the expectations game is more important than the actual numbers themselves. as every guest came on, said earnings are too high, earnings are too high, i kept saying that

would be the catalyst. speaking of which apple the biggest name reporting this week, interestingly the stock popped on the day they reported but then a week later the stock has been relatively flat or down. how are you handicapping it? >> so when you look at apple this is a perfect example. last quarter they missed. they missed in every single category as well. and so when you look at it, you know, yeah it had about one week impact. then look at it over the course of the quarter. this thing is within 10% of all-time highs. so this you know, this stock right here is the perfect example of the fact that investors are kind of over this bear market and they're looking for reasons to buy stocks, even though we know momentum is slowing, we know the economy is not great. hey, the fed may pivot. we might be off to the races here again. charles: speaking of off to the races, one leadership group has been the semis. they kind of got bogged down a little bit. advanced micro, qualcomm on

after the bell. how are you looking at those? >> so when we're looking at these, these are very critical. if the nasdaq is going to continue rallying here we absolutely have to have the semiconductors on board. as much as i love microsoft and apple, they can't do it alone, right? that is where i'm looking to amd, i'm looking to qualcomm. both of these companies have great histories as far as beating estimates. they beat over the last 12 quarters. when you look at amd specifically, the last two quarters it gapped up four and 5%. i like amd. i own the stock. i'm buying more. i think it's great bear market buy. i will trade it long for earnings. qualcomm, this one is a longer term play for me. i think they have great ownership in the space overall. i think that they will in the long-term continue higher. i will admit right now the shorter term technicals are not very good. they have been soft over the past couple of quarters on earnings. but, i would like to see some nice bullish moves here so that we can see the nasdaq trade

higher. >> i'm with you a thousand percent on amd. qualify come, i love the story of qualcomm. you should read the jacobs family what they were able to do against all odds. danielle, we always appreciate you. you always help us make money. >> thank you. charles: folks, coming back, a backhanded compliment from the economist is a reminder how astonishing america really is. i will break it down in "my take". ♪. century lithium is advancing their clayton valley project towards production, with the goal of becoming a domestic lithium producer for the growing electric vehicle market.

nevada's lithium is the key to america's green future. century lithium ♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation.

♪. charles: well my next guest says that it may be jay powell should talk to an oncologist. belpointe chief strategist david nelson. after all these years, a lot of investors are speaking to one after the fed so why shouldn't jay powell speak to one? >> we have a meeting coming up. jay needs to take a step back, monetary policy on its own will not solve the problems. it will have to combine with fiscal policy. it is no good for the at same time the fed drain liquidity and

at the same time the government is pouring it back in. that is chaos. we're getting a dose of chemo, the first rule for oncologist, that you you give chemo, don't give a dose so harsh you kill the patient. the banks, if they keep pressing harder they will break something bigger. the financial plumbing is screaming this is a problem. charles: but isn't that what they wanted? sounds counter intut five to a person watching. i saw a tweet, they were admit way airport, there were a lot of millenials, the fed should hike 100 basis points. the idea any prosperity is too much and they should break everything. they are heroes among the country club set. >> they are, look at issue only issue gets bipartisan support in congress is pushback on china.

the fact we'll reshore our manufacturing activity and critical supply chains. that is a national security imperative. if you accept that then you have to accept the inflation that comes along with it. charles: right. >> china was a deflationary force. charles: right. >> 2%, forget about it. we'll have to learn to live with something higher. there is added benefit to that if inflation is a bit higher, all right, the nominal wages that go up, debt is cheaper, the nominal wages go up, taxes go up, helps pay off the debt. charles: when the fed, the federal reserve act had 3% as the initial benchmark anyway. i don't know where 2% came in, why it became universal. it is interesting when these things happen. >> i didn't know that. charles: we were under that for so long. for a while it sounded like powell would have been okay being over it for a while. now he is in this zone, right? maybe he will come out of the zone on wednesday? >> i think he, look it, he has got to make up for some previous mistakes. they started off with two

mandates, price stability and employment, but they have all these other mandates. they have added climate change, diversity. they cannot do all this they cannot do this. charles: federal reserve act or humphrey-hawkins, one of them said 3%. been a while before we talked. we've been cautious for lack of a better word. >> hard not to be. charles: but the market, one of the things you and i learned, everyone who has been in the market, 20 or 30 years, there is a message to the market you have to respect. the market is saying it wants to go higher given the green light. >> it clearly does. in the last segment you talked about microsoft. just a monster, monster quarter. even on bad newsom stocks have gone up on that. where i'm really bullish is the other side of july. we get to july, things could really take off. because when we get to july, we'll be on the other side of the debt ceiling confrontation. charles: right. >> portfolio fund managers like yours truly we'll look at 2024 which will look a lot better

than it is right now. charles: right. >> the glass is half full. charles: love to hear it. thanks a lot, my man, appreciate it. folks, coming up, an unlikely source giving america props. we should take it and stop trying to be like europe. ♪. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel- nothing beats it. new pronamel active shield actively shields the enamel

to defend against erosion and cavities. i think that this product is a gamechanger for my patients- it really works. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call

coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. say goodbye to daily insulin injections with omnipod 5... a tubeless system that automatically adjusts insulin to help protect against highs and lows. try it today. go to omnipod.com for risk information and instructions for use. consult your doctor before starting on omnipod. (vo) verizon small business days are back. april 27th through may 3rd. get a free tech check and special offers. like a free 5g phone. get started today with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free

with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

charles: when economist magazine compliments the united states, you know you've got to brace yourself, so i was bracing for the worst when i read lessons from america's astonishing economic record. the piece began by lamenting the notion that we have to the make america great again or talking about buying $2 trillion build back package suggesting that, man, america itself is overlooking its sun thing achievements. they mentioned from 1990 how we accounted for a quarter of the world's output, we're still there. 58% of the g7's gdp, that's up from 1990. our purchasing power, $50,000 in mississippi, higher hand average many france, all of france. americans cowork more hours, they acknowledge, than the europeans and swap news but also significantly more productive. consumers everywhere in the world have benefited from american innovations starting a business here, as we know, is really easy. and we learned over weekend

restructuring through bankruptcy can be easy as well. but the shower of prime age workers, and this is when they get a little bit of wagging their fingers a little bit, share of prime age workers in america has not been rising for a long time. in fact, it's higher across the board than in europe. life examine fancy is shamefully behind other rich nations. and they're right about that. here's interesting thing though, article admits that america is leading its peers ever further in the dust. so i came away thinking americans that think that europe is always doing it right and we should somehow be emulating them, they should probably read this article because i am so sick of talking about how europe does everything right particularly taxes and social issues. we're a free mission, and sometimes we're free to do dumb things, right, liz? liz: if anybody doesn't like it, there are lots of flights to china. charles: there's a lot of them. liz: we are leading many artificial intelligence,