of as israel's aggression continues in the gaza strip more. lives are being lost, at the same

time we're looking at the way that israel's economy is suffering, but close to six months of this onslot, there needs to be a review as to where the future uh lies for israel when it comes to its economy, from its credit downgrades to uh disruption in this labor force. let's review some of the highlights of today's program: first, the downgrade of credit of israel is hurting it, the way that it has to get funds and loans has been impacted and also the... continuation of the aggression relies on loans that it now can't get, so that puts into question whether it can continue the aggression or not, other cost to israel, well you have israeli linked vessels and us and uk uh vessels also being targeted by the yemani army, impacting the maritime trade of israel, that affects consumer prices, and of course uh the of maritime trade decrease for israel is another consequence, then when it comes to job,

there's a lack of staff and labor force with an unknown future, especially on the political side. massive company closures have also resulted with no new companies coming into the picture. the us is... genocidal campaign continues to take palestinian lives, but the toll on the israeli economy and the west bank also continues to rise, downgrading of israel's credit rating by the mudy's credit rating agency is a significant factor. for the first time in 30 years, mudis downgraded israel's credit rating. after the downgrade, mudy's made another move. it lowered deposit ratings of israel's five largest banks. mudy's also attached a negative outlook as the ongoing onslot of hamas, is aftermath and wider.

consequences would raise political risk for israel. modies asserted that the aggression would weaken its executive and legislative institutions and its fiscal strength for the foreseeable future. this would have ripple effects on israel's economy, allowing rating increases borrowing costs for. banks, which in turn will likely be passed to consumers and will lead to higher lending rates. time now for the social media post, first one is from wikileaks, a wikileaks cable reveals israel told us officials in 2008 that it would keep gaza's economy on the brink of collapse while avoiding a humanitarian crisis in gaza. next up, uncle sam, hiding fac it said that israel's. economy dying, higher

interest rates market demanded from israelies, the spread between the israel bonds and us treasuries has never been wider. this is vote of no confidence from a market, which the israelis and americans are trying to keep secret. that is something that needs to be looked at closer. maybe this might have some kind of clue to what we just read. this post says the us treasury managed to underwrite a record issue of. is bonds to of continue the war, we call it the onslot against the arabs in gaza. the war financing comprised of two billion dollars of five year bonds and $3 billion dollar each of 10 and 30-year bonds. and finally, bricks countries are not only abandoning the us dollar as is reserved currency, they're actually sanctioning the us and israel. how big of an impact will this have on our economy? hi guys, i'm... i'm here in dubai right now and

something massive has just happened, the bricks countries of which dubai, which is part of the united arab emirates, the bricks countries have actually... put embargos on the united states of america and israel, significant embargos and they've uh, they've literally turned the whole tables, because america have always shown their power because their control of the federal reserve for so long that they've just simply stopped trading with certain countries and crippled them in history, well the power of the dollars disappeared, it's evaporated and the power of bricks... but well they've taken control and now what they're doing, they're literally putting the squeeze on. this is never happened before in history, america and israel are being literally put to the sword by the bricks countries, and uh, if you're

not a wake now, then you never will be. that's interesting, that maybe uh, is good reason to do a program on bricks and some of the moves that it's making. visa for example the us and the israely economy. all right, let's get down to the q&a, our first one and introduce our guest, ross, saifo, mantula is our first guest, thabo beki, african school of public and international affairs, the university of south africa joins us. welcome to the program, sir, taking a look at what is happening here in terms of israel's economy, we want to focus on the west bank in this question. "the economy there obviously has been very fragile, it's easily impacted now because of the confrontations that are happening with israel regime forces and the palestinians, basically apartite practices and uh the pression that's uh they're experiencing, given the increased violence from the israeli regime forces against

palestinians, how do you see the uh economy the west bank and the future that it faces there? you know what is very important is to understand that the r facts of a conflict has an impact on economics and on the trade relations and also when you look beyond their ratings, i think what is important for us to can contextualize the conflict in the middle east it is to understand that the conflict of israel and palestine even in 2014 when there was one operation by israel there were already economic losses and those economic losses they are going into their governance. "they are now spending more money into military equipment, they are also losing their workforce, so when you are losing workers and at the same time you are having loans that you are doing, because remember even after the 7th of october, they're

already dealing with the business lost turnover of many businesses, people have lost their jobs, so israel is is actually pushing the global'. into a difficult terrain that we will succeed out of important point that uh guess there makes uh let's uh bring in our next guest and uh find out from him what he thinks? martin is a former managing editor, international affairs and former chief news analyst uh at united press martin welcome to the program uh we're looking at uh the west bank here and of course the so many things that are playing the west bank from the violence to the question that i have for you which is the restriction on the freedom of movement movement where palest workers have no way into the occupied territories, majority of them have been actually barred from work working in the occupied west bank and they can't work in their previous professions, does this mean that palestine economy in the west bank is doomed to fail and that uh chances of it growing are can't

be even gauged at this point? again, a difficult question, in conventional economic terms, i agree with your asset, there is no question that they are suffering, but at the same... time, it has not so far affected their ability to prosecute the war or the regime's determination to do so. the the regime, it does not preside over a united country, there was a rallying around the regime after october the 7th, but because of the failure of both the efforts to free host hostages and the break down of negotiations with hamas and also the long-term prosecution the war. "it has not undermined the regime so far, but there has to be a cs taken. this is very unprecedented war, when the economic costs are affecting them in the long term, not immediately. now there are two ways this

goes simultaneously. in the shorter term, because it is long drawn out, they can actually adapt in the short to the situation, because it isn't a sudden shock, it's a gr'. intensification of pressure on them, and so far they have been able to do that, however, they have never been geared to to fighting long wars and maintaining the course of long wars. "i think we will see apparently no change for the next several months, but after that there could be a negative change in their economic circumstances very dramatically and very fast. islam now for the inf news section of the program. first up we're going to take a look at the company tiktok, it's been going through lot when it comes to uh us lawmakers." but what has happened is that there is a takeover in the making, why? first the house of representatives has passed the bill that

would basically bann in the united states, something that has been ongoing for quite some time, well it has finally happened, and now the former trump official, if you remember steve manachan, the treasury secretary, well he has put forward a plan to actually buy tiktok uh, and what he has done is he's gathering uh investors uh to see whether uh, not whether, when that's going to happen, we asked, doesn't this violate the free speech rights of millions of americans use the platform daily to communicate and stay informed under concerns over user privacy and national security, just shows what the us can do under the notion national security. up next uh, headline that caught our attention is about oil and it's demand, global oil demand to grow, emid the red sea shipping disruptions, the international energy agency says that shipping disruptions provide a short-term boost to the oil market with demand to hover at around 1.3 million barrels per day. now the oil market will

actually face a supply shortage based on one report by the end of 2025, because the world is not replacing crude reserves fast enough. uh next up, take a looking at taking a look at iran's economy, a couple pieces of news on that. the the first one, iran's aluminum has actually grown in terms of its output uh by 7%. this being for the month of february of this year. then uh we took a look at iran's export of agricultural products up 13% in 10 months, so it shows how iran's economy is just humming along. next up and our final look is at the world poverty where uh this particular headline said are the poorest countries being left behind. it said back in 2015 world leaders made a pledge to leave no one behind. these countries were in a larger grouping of 51 countries. of low income status to the end of the 1980s, however, after more than three decades, these 22

countries are still of low income status today. those were the topics we picked for our infinite section. if you have any that you like to send to us from wherever you are, do send them to us. contact information is coming up. this week on expose, benjamin netanyahu vows to reject any calls to hulp the rafah invasion as he and joe biden intensified their staged public spat over zionist israel's genocide in gaza. now following the statement made by former president donald trump that there would be a blood bath if he is not elected in november, left this politicians and media personalities completely lose it on social media. and lastly, a recent political surve. reveals that 50% of americans think trump is guilty and ought to be tried before the 2024

presidential election. stay tuned for expose. the truth is just the revelation away. the program, israel has been attacking the gaza strip a large scale. "there is no doubt that it is committing a genocide there, but this aggression has political, security, military, social and economic cost for the regime, some of which cannot be compensated. let's take a look at how that is happening. well, these are some of the sectors that the aggression has had a deep impact on, leading to israel's economic losses. it concerns uh, for example, credit, that's one of the factors, the credit rating due to the economic effects on the onslot, the increase in the..." depth uh of the cabinet of the zionist regime as a result of the gaza onslot, the increasing transportation due to

the insecurity of the red sea for example for the zionist regime, decrease in tourism income, the impact of aggression on jobs and the cost of housing refugees, as you can see these are just some of the ones that we took a look at that has impacted israel's economy and has led to losses. next, this is very important one though it just uh came out in the news and then is not mentioned much. and uh it concerns israel's credit downgrade, moodies, the credit rating agency uh downgraded the uh credit for israel for the first time uh in 30 years and it's a big blow for it, this has led to increase in the public budget deficit and also high debt in israel, as a result this could lead to increase in interest rates on foreign loans, which well to finance the continuation of the onslot is going to be pretty tough for israel to do, it may also lead to a decrease in the value of shares in the stock market, another hit for the israely economy. next up, let's

take a look at how this will lead to a decrease in investments uh is... investment risks are now very high uh, you have the occupied territories where the risks are going to be uh a very low level, if any at all, at this point in time, companies will demand heavier guarantees for investment, for example, and uh keep in mind buying the debt of any downgraded uh economy becomes less attractive to investors because they want to higher interest rate for their money, and if that's the case, a downgrade would make interest on israel's cabinet debt much higher. as you can see these uh um issues that we talked about, the investments that we just mentioned, and of course the other uh sectors overall that we talked about needs a little bit of uh dissection. let's bring back our guests to find out what they think about it. uh, we have ras adva mantula who rejoins us, thaveki, african school of public and

international affairs at the university of south africa. welcome back to the program uh, let's take a look at about these um... uh unemployment benefits for example that israel has uh um at this point recorded 260,00 of them um since the beginning of the onslot that happened uh back in october 42,500 of these applicants are currently on unpaid leave and uh would looking at the private sector in israel to continue to suffer because it doesn't uh it doesn't have any one to uh fill in the jobs what are the chances of israel's economic uh recuperation do you think absolutely? the the main challenge is that once we have multinational companies, once we have small companies affected by conflict for more than three months to four months now, you will definitely have negative consequences. now for the companies to survive, you remember when covid-19 hit the the globe and the and the world, also israel was not suffering pers, because it mean it

had its own medical supplies, but now they haven challenge. the loss of workforce. now the issue is that for the united nation, for the african union, for the arab league, for the for the countries that are paying their allegency and the pl the solidarity with the conf, the issue of the labor laws and the labor rights of ordinary workers, the right to trade by business has to be respected, and hence you can find that the the issues that the world bank has already raised. when this conflict erupted also, there was a good report that the world bank came with actually uh in october and after three weeks after the war and it also pointed out the issue of the tourism that will be affected by the neighboring countries, the issue of the lower surplus and the people losing their jobs, so how are you going to people just came out of

covid-19 years ago, how will people survive? all right, that's uh obviously one of the things that concerns israel this future, let's find out what martin safe thinks. martin safe rejoins us, he's a former managing editor at the united press. martin safe, welcome back to economic divide. you know, taking a look at digital's future, uh, currently we're looking at one of the major areas that there's a disruption in and that's uh labor shortages. in terms of unemployment benefits, you had about 260,00 who have applied for these benefits, but overall you're looking at store closures and lack of employees and even for stores to get back on their feet. what are the chances of israel's economic recuperation, do you think? "again, you have asked the key question, and until there are serious negotiations, there is no positive answer. my own view is that the the biden administration in the united states bears a great deal of responsibility for this, because anthony blincan who is very passive, he's very aggressive against russia and in prosecuting the war in ukraine, but he

has been very passive in the middle east and he has taken no effective action to restrain the israelis or to try put pressure on hamas either for that matter, i am, as you know, quite quite an old fellow, and i covered the middle east, it was my first great adventure outside ireland back in the era of henry kissinger, which is half a century ago, now kissinger was very heavily criticized at the time, the israelies is now forgotten, disliked and distrusted kissinger because he forced them to make more concessions than they wanted to make, but the key to kissing her was kept the pressure on israel and he kept the pressure on syria and egypt, his priority was to end the the major conflicts between nations. he was not focusing on the palestinian. conflict and he did really nothing on that whatsoever, not nothing constructive, but he did end the the continual states of war that had continued for a quarter of a century virtually uh

between israel, egypt and syria, and he did so by keeping going back to the region, staying there for weeks and even months a time and maintaining the pressure on both sides, including israel, he really pressure the israelies very significantly, we have not seen any of that so far. are, and frankly, i believe secretary of state, anthony blincan does not have the character, does not have the determination, does not have the guts and doesn't have the intellect to do with kissinger did, he does not realize that diplomacy is not simply matter of going somewhere and reading your complaints and then going away, you have to maintain pressure, it is not just gentleman's game, you have to con continue to pressure and negotiate with people on all sides. but you have to focus on the priorities. israel has

tough task of trying to cut expenditures during the time that it continues its aggression. after the start of the onslot, many families living around the gaza strip as well as in the north of the occupied territories and the border of lebanon have moved to hotels, motels, and rental apartments. this is being subsidized by the israeli budget. the head of the hotel association of israel has stated that 50% of the hotel rooms are allocated to people displaced from around gaza. parallel to this, the tourism industry has seen an unprecedented slum. the regime earned. 5.5 billion from tourism in 2022 with 2.5 million tourists visiting the occupied land average. however, after last storm operation, tourism

was severely damaged and the number of tourists in the months of october and november of 2023 was 89,00 and 38,00 respectively and reached zero in december. so hope that the situation will change and the pil will come as soon as possible because the... this is the important for us, like the franciscan, like the keepers of the holy places, uh, because the pilgrims are the prayer, they praying with us, they give the life to the this church, hello and welcome to the quicktake section, i'm the yemini army has continued to increase. says for the israeli regime when it comes to maritime trade. these attacks have become more intense in recent weeks and due to the dependence of more than 90% of the trade of the zianist

regime on the sea, it has imposed heavy economic cost on the regime. these israel regime has had to act to make sure that israeli bound ships made a their journey to occupied palestine. it has introduced incentive for that to happen: israel has offered to pay compensations to the ship. that are damaged by the on-aslot on the gaza strip, despite that, some shipping lines have refused to transport cargo to the occupied territories through the bobble mandab straight and the suas canal due to the insecurity in the red sea. the cost of transportation and insurance has increased significantly. here is one example of what the yemeni army is doing. the belies registered rubymar is the first vessel lost since the yemeni army began targeting commercial ships in november. according to yemen, the number of targeted ships and warships has reached 73. when it comes to the red sea, the arabian seas and the bubble

mandab straight, including the sus canal, it is worth mentioning the importance that they have for shipping. for example, the sus canal shipping route that leads to the red sea is an important waterway for world trade and is used to transfer goods and energy between you. europe and asia and other regions of the world. this route saves time and money by avoiding bypassing the african continent. according to the analysis of the freight trucking company fritos, the rate of shipping goods from various chinese ports by ocean route to israel for each 40-foot container has increased from 1,975 at the end of november to more than $2,300 on december 12th. also the time to reach the destination has increased by at least 18 days. on the other hand, the porta of ilot, which is located on the coast of the red sea has been.

practically closed due to yemeny attacks on this port and the lack of movement of ships to it. as a result, the trade of the zinis regime is carried out through ports located in the mediterranean sea with the closing of iot port, this regime must use ashkalon and haifa terminals to import its oil, which poses security risks to the zinis regime. that brings us to the end of this quicktake segment. please feel free to send us your comments and questions. i'm mattia. and i'll see you next week, when it comes to the future of uh israel and's economy, lot of unknowns uh are there uh, one of the things obviously that is hurting israel's the lack of uh cash, the

funds are not there to continue with this. onslot and not just that, but also uh for its local economy, for it to survive. that is where the us comes in, but the us is at odds with israel at this point, ch with the senate majority leader has said that uh, there should be new elections there, which adds to more political uncertainty, only time will tell whether they can survive uh this uh turbulent time that is experienceing. that does it for this edition of the program. thank you so much for being with us, in questions or comments contact informations behind me. for me at entire team i economic divide, it's goodbye, until the next program.

the headlines a senior un official calls on governments to exert pressure on israel, day after the world's top court ordered israel to allow unimpeded access of food aid into gaza. people in yemen hold rallies to condemn the continued israeli aggression against gaza and voice their support for the... army's anti-israely operations, and also in our headlines, russia strongly condemns the latest is in the air strikes on syria, saying that such provocative acts are categorically unacceptable.