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May 31, 2019
05/19
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i would rather buy treasuries at 4%. treasuries are not going to be at 4%. if you are looking for income, and there are lots of people looking for income, they have to take some level of risk. what is the magnitude of that risk in the corporate credit markets? relative to the incremental income you get, relative to what you get in treasuries, that risk is worth taking. jonathan: let's talk about that relationship between treasury yields and high yield notes. citigroup said that if yields fall below 2%, high-yield spreads have always been materially wider in the post taper tantrum period. walk me through what you think the relationship should be here. we have had 2% treasury yields a couple of times before. we have seen this level many times. should there be a natural relationship between where the two year yield is and where high yield spreads should be? lale: it is focusing on the two-year because it is focusing on the funding cost, indicating some sort of pressure on the economy. rates are important to watch but this is the problem in this new regime we li
i would rather buy treasuries at 4%. treasuries are not going to be at 4%. if you are looking for income, and there are lots of people looking for income, they have to take some level of risk. what is the magnitude of that risk in the corporate credit markets? relative to the incremental income you get, relative to what you get in treasuries, that risk is worth taking. jonathan: let's talk about that relationship between treasury yields and high yield notes. citigroup said that if yields fall...
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May 14, 2019
05/19
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>> i think if we did see a large sale of treasuries by china's central bank, we would see treasury bonds fall, yields move higher over a short period of time. afr that, it's likely that the federal reserve would intervene in the treasurely market and buy treasuries, that's what the whole point of quantitative sing was. if they saw yields moving in a direction that was out of line with their goalsor the u.s. economy, i think the fed has the tools to bring interest rates back where they want them. >> our caption down on the floor of the new york stock exchange suggested that perhaps a worst case scenario would be if china just stayed o of the auction and didn't buy any more u.s. treasuues. what do make of that scenario? >> i actually -- i think china haseady stepped back quite a bit from financing the u.s. . governme chinese foreign exchange reserves, peekeddt aro 4 trillion u.s. dollars. and now they're down to 3 trillion u. dollars. china has already changed from being a net buyer to a net seller over a multiyear time horizon. and the ten-year government bond yield is only 2.4% right now
>> i think if we did see a large sale of treasuries by china's central bank, we would see treasury bonds fall, yields move higher over a short period of time. afr that, it's likely that the federal reserve would intervene in the treasurely market and buy treasuries, that's what the whole point of quantitative sing was. if they saw yields moving in a direction that was out of line with their goalsor the u.s. economy, i think the fed has the tools to bring interest rates back where they...
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May 28, 2019
05/19
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treasury has. indicated they continue to watch china very closely and that they are concerned about china particularly -- potentially manipulating the currency. as of right now, it is not meeting the threshold for being named a currency minute later, but we know the trump administration takes this threat very seriously. one thing that was very interesting coming on the heels of last week's commerce action, where they said they would now place tariffs or countervailing penalties on countries that subsidize their currencies or weaken their currencies, so the administration is looking for ways to police the currency manipulation, even if it will not necessarily be three treasury. a key focus of president trump, who, as you remember, during his campaign said he would name china a currency manipulator, and the treasury has yet again declined to do so. paul: yes, he said he was going to do that on day one, gray, but anyway, greg sullivan, thanks so much for using that. let's go to first word news with je
treasury has. indicated they continue to watch china very closely and that they are concerned about china particularly -- potentially manipulating the currency. as of right now, it is not meeting the threshold for being named a currency minute later, but we know the trump administration takes this threat very seriously. one thing that was very interesting coming on the heels of last week's commerce action, where they said they would now place tariffs or countervailing penalties on countries...
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May 22, 2019
05/19
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could be somebody in treasury. i don't believe this is really that relevant to the legal analysis that we've done but this is the first we're hearing of it. >> thank you. the final question i had and my letter to the director dated may 6th asking for additional briefing and data to support the legislation commonly called beneficial ownership here on capitol hill. i submit this for the record because i've not received a response back from my letter dated may 6th. >> without ok strbjection. >> the director is yet to provide any data to justify the position to have a massive new collection of the ownership data of small businesses across america. i raise it to you because i know you can and will be responsive. one of your reports has not been responsive. the briefing i received from director blon co-and h blonco w frankly insulting. it would be infuriating under a democratic administration for me to receive a briefing like that. it is even more infuriating when it's a very administration not giving reasons on a hill a
could be somebody in treasury. i don't believe this is really that relevant to the legal analysis that we've done but this is the first we're hearing of it. >> thank you. the final question i had and my letter to the director dated may 6th asking for additional briefing and data to support the legislation commonly called beneficial ownership here on capitol hill. i submit this for the record because i've not received a response back from my letter dated may 6th. >> without ok...
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May 23, 2019
05/19
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treasury. -- sovereignty. the most important goal is to ensure that our companies creating jobs in the u.s. can be competitive on a global marketplace but not subject to european standards that don't make sense for earn american companies or consumers. priority nationwide. i'd appreciate an update on some of these international negotiations. how can we put america first but also open up markets oversees for companies that want to be competitive abroad? sec. mnuchin: thank you. on the international insurance issue i did just give a significant speech last week on this. we'd be more than happy to get a copy of it to you. team usa is what we call the interagency group of regulators, very much focused on defending the u.s. state based regulatory system. thank you. we in this committee having an ongoing debate about how hard working americans are going to have access to the american dream and continue to deliver opportunities for prosperity to all. we all have to work together to keep our system competitive in the
treasury. -- sovereignty. the most important goal is to ensure that our companies creating jobs in the u.s. can be competitive on a global marketplace but not subject to european standards that don't make sense for earn american companies or consumers. priority nationwide. i'd appreciate an update on some of these international negotiations. how can we put america first but also open up markets oversees for companies that want to be competitive abroad? sec. mnuchin: thank you. on the...
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May 16, 2019
05/19
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would they be treasury sales on the magnitude that started to have a significant impact on the treasury market, i think that is doubtful. shery: thank you for joining us out of d.c.. coming up, shares of walmart are rallying after the retailer announced plans to counter the effects of the u.s.-china trade war. that conversation next, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg markets, i am shery ahn a new mork -- in new york. jon: and i am john, in toronto. walmart is indicating that shoppers will absorb some of the cost from the tariffs on chinese imports. the cfo saying we will do everything we can to keep prices low but increased tariffs lead to increased prices. ann.ng us with more is we have been watching this closely, which retailers would be affected. but it looks like walmart is putting up some impressive numbers. right, they just reported for their first quarter, it was the best first quarter from walmart in nine years, that came off of a strong christmas corridor. it was not just a blip, they saw a lot of strength in their grocery business and a lot of pick up in-store and onlin
would they be treasury sales on the magnitude that started to have a significant impact on the treasury market, i think that is doubtful. shery: thank you for joining us out of d.c.. coming up, shares of walmart are rallying after the retailer announced plans to counter the effects of the u.s.-china trade war. that conversation next, this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg markets, i am shery ahn a new mork -- in new york. jon: and i am john, in toronto. walmart is indicating that shoppers...
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May 23, 2019
05/19
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treasury, the movement in the yield on u.s. treasuries. have they regret the bullet train that is an expectation of a rate cut? america throwing in the towel. they aresaying reducing their level of yield to 2.6 from 3%. let's have a look at some of the markets. eurosterling. what an amazing run. down 13 days in a row. the longest run of losses in history. there are big issues. the market may not be ready for a new leader of the tory party. there can morning. >> good morning. the fed is patient. no sign of an insurance cuts. how deep does this trade don't -- more have to get? we saw losses in the u.s. yesterday. another day of declines in the u.s. and european markets today. steady yuan. rupee outperforming, underperforming to the downside is the turkish lira. lower for a third day as though stocks have entered a bear market. let's check on the markets in asia. juliette saly in singapore has more. risk off across equities. trade angst still front and center. big moves and bond markets. >> you said it all. we are seeing these trade woes impa
treasury, the movement in the yield on u.s. treasuries. have they regret the bullet train that is an expectation of a rate cut? america throwing in the towel. they aresaying reducing their level of yield to 2.6 from 3%. let's have a look at some of the markets. eurosterling. what an amazing run. down 13 days in a row. the longest run of losses in history. there are big issues. the market may not be ready for a new leader of the tory party. there can morning. >> good morning. the fed is...
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May 6, 2019
05/19
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any word from the treasury secretary, steve mnuchin tonight? >> not yet. it's something we're expecting any moment. the treasury department laying out in a letter to richard neal, a democrat, that they would respond in full whether or not they would be willing to turn olympic the president's tax returns, plus tax returns for eight of his business entities by today. but not to play spoiler here, wolf, the reality is there's no expectation the answer will be "yes." as you can see from the treasury department's letters to the two deadlines they've already missed, they have significant concerns, significant problems, they say on constitutional grounds with this request, and what this means, not unlike what we've seen with the mueller report and what we've seen on several requests to the house oversight committee, this is at some point going to wind up in court pem court. everything house democrats are doing on the investigative front, they're not getting compliance on the subpoenas, and that means contempt votes may be coming, more votes may be coming, but eve
any word from the treasury secretary, steve mnuchin tonight? >> not yet. it's something we're expecting any moment. the treasury department laying out in a letter to richard neal, a democrat, that they would respond in full whether or not they would be willing to turn olympic the president's tax returns, plus tax returns for eight of his business entities by today. but not to play spoiler here, wolf, the reality is there's no expectation the answer will be "yes." as you can see...
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May 5, 2019
05/19
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mildt on this week's treasury market standoff, treasury looking resilient. one more goldilocks jobs report. >>. feels a little goldilocks >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> strong. >> you can't argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation another wage pressures are modest. >> really great job growth. >> the recovery does look like it has legs to it. >> it is stable, it is fine, the business cycle is in good shape. >> the headwinds, we are calling it nirvana. cut that opening sequence and play it every month and it would be relevant. let's bring in the guests. kathleen, how long have we been doing this goldilocks business for the payrolls report. >> forever. it is getting really old. >> it is going to change. >> it will, and i think we are getting close. everything is so crowded it is poised to just jump. >> this goldilocks for the economy is good for the bond market. everything else i would say so, yes. >> it will go on for a long time. what i think we will find out if that a lot of the business cycle was a combination of the fed being hyp
mildt on this week's treasury market standoff, treasury looking resilient. one more goldilocks jobs report. >>. feels a little goldilocks >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> strong. >> you can't argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation another wage pressures are modest. >> really great job growth. >> the recovery does look like it has legs to it. >> it is stable, it is fine, the business cycle is in good shape....
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May 22, 2019
05/19
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that's according to treasury secretary steven mnuchin and. mr. trump had planned to meet his chinese counterpart when the two countries were on the verge of reaching a trade deal, but talks ended earlier this month with no agreement. facing newi is pressure from democrats to open impeachment proceedings. hello see meets with party members today behind closed doors. they will discuss president inmp's defiance investigations. several democrats have called on an impeachment inquiry. president trump will name ken cuccinelli the second to coordinate immigration policies. he is an immigration hardliner who was an unsuccessful candidate for governor in 2013. he wants proposed to denying citizenship to american-born children of illegal immigrants. iran could surpass enriched uranium limits set under its nuclear deal within weeks. that's likely to escalate tensions with the u.s.. the 2015 deal cut iran's enriched irani and by 97%. iran announced it was scale back some of its commitments. that was after the u.s. evoked measures that allowed iran to remain
that's according to treasury secretary steven mnuchin and. mr. trump had planned to meet his chinese counterpart when the two countries were on the verge of reaching a trade deal, but talks ended earlier this month with no agreement. facing newi is pressure from democrats to open impeachment proceedings. hello see meets with party members today behind closed doors. they will discuss president inmp's defiance investigations. several democrats have called on an impeachment inquiry. president...
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May 9, 2019
05/19
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treasuries. reasons forf those trade tensions between china and the u.s., it is concerning everyone. investors have been focused this week entirely on what comes out of president trump's mouth, not to mention tweets. he said he received a beautiful letter from president xi jinping and he may speak to the chinese president on the phone. we saw stocks come off the lows. stockse are seeing those that have high exposure to china mildly outperforming world stocks. that was not the case really. they were underperforming throughout the week. not surprising we have seen president trump just last night at a campaign rally in florida talk about how china broke the deal and how they will not stop until china stops stealing u.s. jobs. in another part of the u.s. government we continue to see this mounting pressure on china. the fcc rejecting china mobile's bid to have access to the u.s. market. their logic is this is on espionage concerns and not really -- can they are preoccupied about china accessing u.s.
treasuries. reasons forf those trade tensions between china and the u.s., it is concerning everyone. investors have been focused this week entirely on what comes out of president trump's mouth, not to mention tweets. he said he received a beautiful letter from president xi jinping and he may speak to the chinese president on the phone. we saw stocks come off the lows. stockse are seeing those that have high exposure to china mildly outperforming world stocks. that was not the case really. they...
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May 5, 2019
05/19
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treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issues. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description. >> very strong growth. >> looks good. >> we cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation and wage pressures are modest. >> where having really great job growth, super good job growth. >> it's stable, it is fine. there is no inflation. >> the head winds fading. >> we are calling it nirvana. jonathan: we can play that opening sequence every month and the next month and the next month, and it would be relevant. let's bring in the table. kathleen, how long have we been doing this goldilocks business with the payrolls report? >> forever. it is getting really old. jonathan: is it going to change? >> it will, and i think we are getting close. everything is so crowded it is poised to just jump. >> it is goldilocks for the economy is good for the bond market. everything else i would say so, yes. >> it will go on for a long time. what i thi
treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issues. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description. >> very strong growth. >> looks good. >> we cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation and wage pressures are modest. >> where having really great job growth, super good job growth. >> it's stable, it is fine. there is...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 17, 2019
05/19
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treasury. it also speaks, most importantly, to san francisco values of affordable housing, workforce housing, and union jobs, which provide a pathway to having homes and a good source of income and pensions. the other thing i wanted to say about this is that you have been invested in this since 1996, and the fund has created 9 projects within san francisco. 1,660 units of housing, 368 which are affordable units, and the construction generated more than 300 union construction jobs, which brings in income to this city. so we ask that you really look at keeping this fund because we think it brings -- it speaks to san francisco values of housing, affordable housing, workforce housing, and union jobs. >> thank you, ms. landry. are there more? i will close the public comment. there's a motion and there's a second on the floor. excuse me. there's a motion and second. any discussion on this item? >> board members, we would need to know what else the board needs. >> okay. so there were some questions th
treasury. it also speaks, most importantly, to san francisco values of affordable housing, workforce housing, and union jobs, which provide a pathway to having homes and a good source of income and pensions. the other thing i wanted to say about this is that you have been invested in this since 1996, and the fund has created 9 projects within san francisco. 1,660 units of housing, 368 which are affordable units, and the construction generated more than 300 union construction jobs, which brings...
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May 28, 2019
05/19
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everything is good always for treasury yields. what is happening with european yields aree bund making lows, relative to the rest of the world the treasury yield looks quite high. one way or another you get to a sucking point where everything is good for treasuries until we reach a level where it cannot carry it all. nejra: makes sense. it sounds as though you feel there is more momentum in that yield even if it might reverse due to the technicals we have pointed at through the show. let's talk about below the service, at bnp paribas, you are talking about the next position, and the flows in the treasury market, and that composition chinese from -- international reserve to a more in europe and japan. what indications does this have for treasuries and of the dollar? laurence: this is interesting stuff. nejra: that is why i brought it up. laurence: it used to be the u.s. had a big deficit with china, and the chinese central bank was applying itself with dollars in the treasury market, and that is a stable situation. as the trade has
everything is good always for treasury yields. what is happening with european yields aree bund making lows, relative to the rest of the world the treasury yield looks quite high. one way or another you get to a sucking point where everything is good for treasuries until we reach a level where it cannot carry it all. nejra: makes sense. it sounds as though you feel there is more momentum in that yield even if it might reverse due to the technicals we have pointed at through the show. let's talk...
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May 29, 2019
05/19
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treasury report, so it is anyone's guess. vonnie: this would be a massive retaliation by china, were it to happen. what would it do to u.s. companies and the economy, and to consumers ultimately? michael: it could be a major headache because they use in electric motors. all through the product chain, you would have problems. china has, in the past, tried this once with japan, and it didn't work out very well. japan, though, is a smaller economy then the u.s. china didn't really get any advantage out of it. we are not clear whether they are going to do that or not, but it is, in the short run, an issue. in the long run, they are not rare. they are called rare earth, but they are found everywhere, and other countries could ramp up production, including the u.s. mine andreopening a processing facility in california. it takes time, but it could be replaced. vonnie: i just want to come back one last time to the list of countries because a couple were actually taken off the list, and that was also surprising, india being one of the
treasury report, so it is anyone's guess. vonnie: this would be a massive retaliation by china, were it to happen. what would it do to u.s. companies and the economy, and to consumers ultimately? michael: it could be a major headache because they use in electric motors. all through the product chain, you would have problems. china has, in the past, tried this once with japan, and it didn't work out very well. japan, though, is a smaller economy then the u.s. china didn't really get any...
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May 4, 2019
05/19
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BLOOMBERG
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service sector fuels uncertainty, putting a lid on the standup treasuries, looking resilient. we begin with the big issue, just one more goldilocks jobs report. >> it feels able to bit goldilocks. >> we are still seeing very strong growth rates. >> you can't argue with the numbers. >> we don't have major imbalances. >> inflation has been muted. >> we had great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has likes to it. >> it is stable. it is fine. the fed is staying away. >> we are calling it nirvana. >> we can cut that opening sequence and play it the next month and next month and it would be relevant. let's bring in the table. long have we been doing this goldilocks the payrolls report. >> forever. it is getting really old. >> it is going to change. >> it will, and i think we are getting close. everything is so crowded it is poised to just jump. >> this goldilocks for the economy is good for the bond market. everything else i would say so, yes. >> it will go on for a long time. what i think we will find out if that a lot of the business cycle was a comb
service sector fuels uncertainty, putting a lid on the standup treasuries, looking resilient. we begin with the big issue, just one more goldilocks jobs report. >> it feels able to bit goldilocks. >> we are still seeing very strong growth rates. >> you can't argue with the numbers. >> we don't have major imbalances. >> inflation has been muted. >> we had great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has likes to it. >> it...
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May 28, 2019
05/19
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treasury? chetan: we as a team have been quite bullish on 10 year bonds and the base assumption behind that is we have risk for growth outlook. market isat the bond pricing in. it is going back to what is the outlook of the trade tensions. if you have further escalation and global economies heading towards recession, you'll see a decline in 10 year bond yield. , speaking to us at the morgan stanley annual china summit. painting a picture of caution for the markets and investors. the on the lookout -- be on the lookout. markets have not quite priced this inserted shery: thank you so much for that. we won't -- quite priced in. shery: thank you so much for that. do not miss our exclusive conversation with james gorman. he will join us tomorrow on bloomberg tv and radio at 8:00 a.m. hong kong and 10:00 a.m. from sydney. nissan pot ceo says the renault-fiat deal may present opportunities. the board governing the alliance meet. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: this is "daybreak asia." i am paul allen in
treasury? chetan: we as a team have been quite bullish on 10 year bonds and the base assumption behind that is we have risk for growth outlook. market isat the bond pricing in. it is going back to what is the outlook of the trade tensions. if you have further escalation and global economies heading towards recession, you'll see a decline in 10 year bond yield. , speaking to us at the morgan stanley annual china summit. painting a picture of caution for the markets and investors. the on the...
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May 15, 2019
05/19
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i think this is an area that hasn't been clarified by treasury. secretary mnuchin: i appreciate you bringing that up. first let me comment, we have a conflict in certain states more broadly between federal law and state law. that creates significant problems for us at treasury, particularly in areas of the i.r.s. and other areas where we need to collect taxes. we have to build cash rooms and everything else. this has become a cash business. without me making a policy view on this, i would encourage congress that this is an issue that needs to be addressed because it has created issues. spovegly in regards to your question -- specifically in regards to your question, we have not put out guidance so i defer to my team, my recommendation to them would be it is not 9 intent of the opportunity -- not the intent of the opportunity zones if there is this conflict that has not been cleared that for now we should not have those businesses in the opportunity zones. i defer to my group to put out guidance on this. i would emphasize the broaderer issue is an
i think this is an area that hasn't been clarified by treasury. secretary mnuchin: i appreciate you bringing that up. first let me comment, we have a conflict in certain states more broadly between federal law and state law. that creates significant problems for us at treasury, particularly in areas of the i.r.s. and other areas where we need to collect taxes. we have to build cash rooms and everything else. this has become a cash business. without me making a policy view on this, i would...
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May 15, 2019
05/19
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we got the latest treasury holding data as well. china's treasury holdings were down. what do we know? >> just before i get onto that, they deny that it poses any security risk. they have fallen for the first time in four months. remain the largest foreign holder of u.s. treasuries with about $1.1 trillion worth. that number dropped by about 10 billion in the month of march. this is because of the ramp up in tariffs. as you rightly say, this has become a key focal point. the question is whether or not china looks to sell down its u.s. treasury as a weapon in his trade war. that this is aay very unlikely step for china because of the financial impacts. simply because it is such a liquid market. they were very few other places for china to invest or put its money. this will be noted but it may be more to do with china's attempts to shore up the yuan rather than hitting back at the u.s.. certainly, a 10 billion drop in their treasury holdings will be noted by the markets. tom: tom mackenzie in beijing. thank you for joining us. still to come, taking the post of china poss
we got the latest treasury holding data as well. china's treasury holdings were down. what do we know? >> just before i get onto that, they deny that it poses any security risk. they have fallen for the first time in four months. remain the largest foreign holder of u.s. treasuries with about $1.1 trillion worth. that number dropped by about 10 billion in the month of march. this is because of the ramp up in tariffs. as you rightly say, this has become a key focal point. the question is...
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May 30, 2019
05/19
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treasuries are one way of doing that. the other things that are attractive in this part of the cycle are things like global macro funds. historically volatility picks up, global macro funds tend to outperform, and i think you will likely see a rise in volatility over the coming six to 12 months. the other thing is infrastructure. you look for a reasonable yield that is relatively defensive. the steady income stream you tend to see from regulated utility companies and some of the power generation companies, those kind of contracted revenues are pretty stable and defensive and attractive at this late stage in the cycle. vonnie: the dollar index continues to strengthen, michael , grinding higher, up about 0.4%. what does that mean for currency hedging for you? anhael: i think it is important question, particularly for investors in the u.k.. we talked about the attraction still of u.s. treasuries, but i think a lot of those huge uncertainties here in the u.k. around the direction of sterling against the dollar given the ongoi
treasuries are one way of doing that. the other things that are attractive in this part of the cycle are things like global macro funds. historically volatility picks up, global macro funds tend to outperform, and i think you will likely see a rise in volatility over the coming six to 12 months. the other thing is infrastructure. you look for a reasonable yield that is relatively defensive. the steady income stream you tend to see from regulated utility companies and some of the power...
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May 15, 2019
05/19
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the department treasury is very very important. we look forward to hearing the secretary's testimony today. with that, mr. sec., if you would like to begin i'm going to leave plenty of time for questions. we have a lot to talk about. i can see the sen. is raring to go. >> in an effort to follow your lead i'm going to read my first paragraph and put the rest in the record so that we have that. german kennedy, ranking member and members of the subcommittee i'm here to be today to discuss the 2020 budget and key policy priorities. his economics programs of tax cuts bring the tory relief and improved trade deals is a resulting in more jobs and higher wages for hard- working families. in the first quarter we saw an annual gdp rate of 3.2% far exceeding expectations. that follows 3% growth from q4 2017 two q4 2018, the fastest growth in years. unemployment remains historically low at 3.6% and earnings year-over-year by 3.2%. i appreciate the opportunity to be here in front of the committee to talk about other important issues so thank yo
the department treasury is very very important. we look forward to hearing the secretary's testimony today. with that, mr. sec., if you would like to begin i'm going to leave plenty of time for questions. we have a lot to talk about. i can see the sen. is raring to go. >> in an effort to follow your lead i'm going to read my first paragraph and put the rest in the record so that we have that. german kennedy, ranking member and members of the subcommittee i'm here to be today to discuss...
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May 13, 2019
05/19
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treasuries. i would say good luck weakening your currency unless you're trying to crash your economy >> the market response to that was basically a shrug because they don't think it's a plausible threat china holds a smaller proportion of u.s. debt than they used to our debt has gone up so much it doesn't seem as if it is really much of a secret weapon that china might have to deploy. also, as you mentioned, self-defeating on a lot of levels that's why i wonder if we're bracing for this staticy relationship and the market will reset to a level that accounts for it and this year's and next year's earnings and at some point look at stock versus bond yields stocks look okay here just like they did after brexit or other big shot movements >> ten years back below 2.4% and some companies hit really hard in the session are the abcs that we talk about apple down 5.5% and boeing down 5% they might stop buying boeing planes >> that headline along with the treasury headline was just enough to insight kind o
treasuries. i would say good luck weakening your currency unless you're trying to crash your economy >> the market response to that was basically a shrug because they don't think it's a plausible threat china holds a smaller proportion of u.s. debt than they used to our debt has gone up so much it doesn't seem as if it is really much of a secret weapon that china might have to deploy. also, as you mentioned, self-defeating on a lot of levels that's why i wonder if we're bracing for this...
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May 4, 2019
05/19
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treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth. >> you cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> we are having a really great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has legs to it. >> the business cycle is in good shape, no inflation. the fed is staying away. >> we are calling it a nirvana. jonathan: we could cut that opening sequence and play it every month for the next two months. let's bring in our guests. kathleen, how long have we been doing this goldilocks business with payrolls report? kathleen: forever. it is getting old. jonathan: will it change? kathleen: we are close. everything is poised to jump. >> goldilocks for the economy, not the bond market. the only value is at the front end. >> i think it will go on for a long time. we will find out a lot of the business cycle was a combination of the fed being hyper aggressive i
treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth. >> you cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> we are having a really great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has legs to it. >> the business cycle is in good shape, no inflation....
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May 22, 2019
05/19
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and incidentally at the treasury. i mean the irs is part of the treasury department. the president installed his chief fund-raiser from his campaign as head of the treasury. that itself is little unusual. but then beneath him as head of the irs the president installed a somewhat obscure california tax lawyer who just happened to have written an op-ed in forbes during the 2016 presidential campaign that argued that donald trump definitely shouldn't ever show anyone his tax returns. that was sort of a fringe view during the 2016 presidential campaign from either party. there's decades of precedent from every president and every presidential candidate in the post watergate era they release their taxes, and everyone knows the good reasons for it. all the other candidates in 2016 on both sides of the aisle all released their tax returns. trump even felt compelled to say during the campaign even if he didn't mean it, he felt compelled to say at one point of course he's release his tax returns. everybody knows that a presidential candidate has to release his tax return. but
and incidentally at the treasury. i mean the irs is part of the treasury department. the president installed his chief fund-raiser from his campaign as head of the treasury. that itself is little unusual. but then beneath him as head of the irs the president installed a somewhat obscure california tax lawyer who just happened to have written an op-ed in forbes during the 2016 presidential campaign that argued that donald trump definitely shouldn't ever show anyone his tax returns. that was sort...
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May 9, 2019
05/19
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treasury holdings weakest option in a decade. we discuss why, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm nejra cehic in london. manus: i'm manus cranny in dubai. equities are being roiled again forward. the asian equity sitting a two having month low. money flows into yen and a lovely chart hanjin- . -- yen-yuan. vol is spiking. nejra: the 10 year yield moves lower by two basis points, 2.47 handle. be concerned should we about the auction yesterday? the dollar gaining against. -- against peers. oil on the back foot. crude was pushed higher yesterday but we are lower today. let's get the first word news with rosalind chin. to price uber is due shares for its ipo today. still expected to be the largest listing this year, but unlikely as big as initially thought. the company is considering pricing chairs -- shares slightly below the midpoint of its range. it could debut with a market value of around $79 billion, a far cry from the 120 billion some were talking last year. occidental's corporate debt has landed in the net
treasury holdings weakest option in a decade. we discuss why, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm nejra cehic in london. manus: i'm manus cranny in dubai. equities are being roiled again forward. the asian equity sitting a two having month low. money flows into yen and a lovely chart hanjin- . -- yen-yuan. vol is spiking. nejra: the 10 year yield moves lower by two basis points, 2.47 handle. be concerned should we about the auction yesterday?...
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May 24, 2019
05/19
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BLOOMBERG
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in the u.s., the treasury selling $11 billion in 10-year tips. the highest cover ratio since april of 2010. finally, the junk issuance spree continues. may is the busiest month since march of 2018. auto retailer karbala selling $50 million in 2023 notes yielding nearly 9%. kathy jones, michael collins, and from minneapolis, craig bishop. greg, that is what's been fascinating about this period of risk aversion. , loans, high yield is still coming through, and still being eaten up. craig: demand is there. that is the pure and simple, a matter of supply and demand. a lot of it has to do with the fact that what the central bank environment that has us in right now, where they have almost sent a signal that they are going to hold rate study, provide the necessary support to the markets as needed. that has increased the confidence of both issuers and investors that they can step into the market and take advantage of the yield. in our view, high yield is a still relatively risky environment, not that we are high on at the moment. we are watching it, tho
in the u.s., the treasury selling $11 billion in 10-year tips. the highest cover ratio since april of 2010. finally, the junk issuance spree continues. may is the busiest month since march of 2018. auto retailer karbala selling $50 million in 2023 notes yielding nearly 9%. kathy jones, michael collins, and from minneapolis, craig bishop. greg, that is what's been fascinating about this period of risk aversion. , loans, high yield is still coming through, and still being eaten up. craig: demand...
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May 9, 2019
05/19
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demand for treasuries the lowest since 2009. the cash trade starts in 30 minutes time. ♪ >> goldman sachs says markets anuld not help -- hope for 11th hour resolution. >> they broke the deal. they cannot do that. they will be paying. >> novartis will pay $750 million -- it is the first major deal since the takeover. softbank reports a surge in profit. boosted by a $4 million gain. the company is set to price its ipo later today. >> let's take a look at futures. it does look to be a risk off day. that is what we saw in asia overnight. european and u.s. futures pointing down with some serious size. 0.6 percent is the drop. down.o see ftse futures we don't see a huge bid for safe haven assets. there is not a huge bid for treasuries for the yen or gold. overugh bitcoin is up $6,000. you can see, we have been strengthening. down. dollar comes 109 .9.ow -- not a lot of strength and the japanese currency. what do you see? interesting what is flowing into havens. a number of times about a lack of volatility. today does seem different
demand for treasuries the lowest since 2009. the cash trade starts in 30 minutes time. ♪ >> goldman sachs says markets anuld not help -- hope for 11th hour resolution. >> they broke the deal. they cannot do that. they will be paying. >> novartis will pay $750 million -- it is the first major deal since the takeover. softbank reports a surge in profit. boosted by a $4 million gain. the company is set to price its ipo later today. >> let's take a look at futures. it does...
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May 9, 2019
05/19
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who is going to buy all of those treasuries? mark: that is a good question because the marginal buyers are disappearing. if we see things change like political risk, people come back , and that world there isn't a new marginal buyer for u.s. treasuries. what you have is potentially a weaker u.s. dollar with higher rates. it is not a two-year trade. it is kind of like the 30 year, 20 year rates in the u.s. are rising because of the supply and demand mismatch, but that is not coinciding with a stronger dollar. the other thing is global inflation moving lower. there's still a macro element that caps the term premium, but there is an element that the buyers have disappeared. no one wants to buy u.s. treasuries because they are too expensive to hedge. alix: where's the volatility? you come inside the bloomberg. obviously the white line is equities. the vix pops. you have idiosyncratic volatility. where's my vol? vol: this is an equity story. inflation is a critical macro voler of ethics -- of fx and inflation vol. it is kind of wobbl
who is going to buy all of those treasuries? mark: that is a good question because the marginal buyers are disappearing. if we see things change like political risk, people come back , and that world there isn't a new marginal buyer for u.s. treasuries. what you have is potentially a weaker u.s. dollar with higher rates. it is not a two-year trade. it is kind of like the 30 year, 20 year rates in the u.s. are rising because of the supply and demand mismatch, but that is not coinciding with a...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 10, 2019
05/19
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we hold -- our treasury portfolio, no credit risk. it's 1 to 10 year treasuries. that's all that we have there. liquid credit, this is where we do take credit risk, and we would like to estimate how much we take that. again, this is where kaisa has been extremely helpful to pool data from our managers and see what we actually have as an aggregate fixed income portfolio. i am going to move on to -- let me see. yes, on page 23, lower chart, bottom chart, the bar that says average credit qualities. you could see that the -- we are comparing to barclay's ad, which is averaged credit quality of aa, and now current portfolio, it's bbb. that's by design. if we combine it with treasury, it still will be -- which is all aaa, it will be at the barclay's level. the sector exposure, again, we have an allocation to corporate high yield, bank loans, and bonds which often classify as emerging mortgage bonds. >> can i make a quick comment on page 23? >> several. >> so on the bottom chart here, there are desirable characteristics, and a tradeoff. we have lower duration. we have a
we hold -- our treasury portfolio, no credit risk. it's 1 to 10 year treasuries. that's all that we have there. liquid credit, this is where we do take credit risk, and we would like to estimate how much we take that. again, this is where kaisa has been extremely helpful to pool data from our managers and see what we actually have as an aggregate fixed income portfolio. i am going to move on to -- let me see. yes, on page 23, lower chart, bottom chart, the bar that says average credit...
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May 13, 2019
05/19
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they're going to restrict self treasuries we are huge buy in treasuries. i can't believe how little fire power is is that really all the chinese can bring? really that's it? >> are you referring to the moving treasuries today? >> no, i am saying jesus, they're 1.2 million treasuries to go. >> that's a tweet from the editor of a newspaper that says scholar started to debate, that's not an announcement from the chinese obviously. >> i don't think there is anybody in china that's not in command and not berun by the party. that's it. they're going to dump treasuries if trump puts out this trial balloon. it is a testament to how little business they let us do. >> you know, jim, you are obviously right when you look at the list of newly tariff goods that rim ported imported by chi. it is all agriculture or the bulk of what we export to china as oppose to what we import from the country. the bigger picture here is you got a conflict that's extended and deepening one could argue and it does not have a quick resolution and so, while we had any number of guests and
they're going to restrict self treasuries we are huge buy in treasuries. i can't believe how little fire power is is that really all the chinese can bring? really that's it? >> are you referring to the moving treasuries today? >> no, i am saying jesus, they're 1.2 million treasuries to go. >> that's a tweet from the editor of a newspaper that says scholar started to debate, that's not an announcement from the chinese obviously. >> i don't think there is anybody in china...
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May 10, 2019
05/19
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treasury buying. it was the worst one in 10 years. does that give us anything or is that about what the fed does next? david: there is something to do that, no doubt. the pace of accumulations of reserves for china has slowed dramatically. given how strong the dollar has been, we have been seeing persistent dollars selling from reserve managers. i am not pointing at china in particular, but our proprietary flows will indicate why the euro selloff has not been sustained, because we have seen central banks into the dollar rally. i do not know to what extent this is a big story. unfortunately, the investor community, particularly the fixed income market continues to be gripped by the sense that recession is around the corner. the market is still pricing in two cuts from the fed over the next two years. the market has been in some sense, toasts by the -- comatose by the fed. the market is in super dependency mode and has not been pricing in much opportunity for a u.s.-china trade deal. deal, the most stra
treasury buying. it was the worst one in 10 years. does that give us anything or is that about what the fed does next? david: there is something to do that, no doubt. the pace of accumulations of reserves for china has slowed dramatically. given how strong the dollar has been, we have been seeing persistent dollars selling from reserve managers. i am not pointing at china in particular, but our proprietary flows will indicate why the euro selloff has not been sustained, because we have seen...
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May 16, 2019
05/19
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today's hearing will feature two panels from the department of the treasury. we'll start panel one with our esteemed treasury secretary, secretary steven mnuchin. prior to his confirmation in 2017, he served as founder and chief executive officer of dune capital management. he also founded one west bank group. he was chairman of the board and ceo there. earlier in his career, the secretary was a partner at goldman sachs, served as chief information officer. secretary mnuchin holds a bachelor's degree from yale university. our fsgg staff wrote me a very eloquent opening statement. in the interest of time, i'm going to summarize it. the department of treasury is very, very important, and we look forward to hearing the secretary's testimony today. with that, mr. secretary, if you would like to begin, i will leave plenty of time for questions. we've got a lot to talk about. i can see senator van hollen is raring to go down there. >> in an effort to follow your lead, i am going to read my first paragraph, and then i will put the rest in the record so that we have t
today's hearing will feature two panels from the department of the treasury. we'll start panel one with our esteemed treasury secretary, secretary steven mnuchin. prior to his confirmation in 2017, he served as founder and chief executive officer of dune capital management. he also founded one west bank group. he was chairman of the board and ceo there. earlier in his career, the secretary was a partner at goldman sachs, served as chief information officer. secretary mnuchin holds a bachelor's...
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May 26, 2019
05/19
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MSNBCW
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the treasury needs more time to address, feiting issues. or is it possible mnuchin is too afraid of denominating andrew jackson to the back of the bill. joining me now valerie jarrett, author of finding my voice, my journey to the west wing and the path forward. valerie, always great to see you. even in these circumstances. >> absolutely as we celebrate memorial day and all those who sacrificed for our country. >> and harriet tubman was also a civil war hero. >> absolutely. >> the idea of not honoring her in this way when this was already sanctioned by the obama treasury secretary, what do you make of it? >> it is insulting not just to african-americans and women, but to anyone in our country who wants to celebrate an american hi hero. and the fact that they use the excuse that it has to be not
the treasury needs more time to address, feiting issues. or is it possible mnuchin is too afraid of denominating andrew jackson to the back of the bill. joining me now valerie jarrett, author of finding my voice, my journey to the west wing and the path forward. valerie, always great to see you. even in these circumstances. >> absolutely as we celebrate memorial day and all those who sacrificed for our country. >> and harriet tubman was also a civil war hero. >> absolutely....
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May 26, 2019
05/19
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elsewhere in the u.s., the treasury selling $11 billion in 10-year tips. the lowest yield since january 2018. the highest cover ratio since april of 2010. and finally, the junk issuance spree continues. making may the busiest month since march of 2018. auto retailer carvana selling $250 million in 2023 notes yielding nearly 9%. joining us around the table, kathy jones, michael collins, and from minneapolis, craig bishop. craig, that is what's been fascinating about this period of risk aversion. the supply, loans as well high-yield is still coming through, and still being eaten up. your view on it? craig: demand is there. that is the pure and simple, a matter of supply and demand. demand is there. supply will be produced. i think a lot of it has to do with the fact that what the central bank environment the fed has is in now, where they have almost sent a signal that they are going to hold rates steady, provide the necessary support to the markets as needed. i think that has increased the confidence of both issuers and investors that they can step into the
elsewhere in the u.s., the treasury selling $11 billion in 10-year tips. the lowest yield since january 2018. the highest cover ratio since april of 2010. and finally, the junk issuance spree continues. making may the busiest month since march of 2018. auto retailer carvana selling $250 million in 2023 notes yielding nearly 9%. joining us around the table, kathy jones, michael collins, and from minneapolis, craig bishop. craig, that is what's been fascinating about this period of risk aversion....
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May 10, 2019
05/19
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these go directly to the treasury it's not exactly the way it works. dig deeper into this and discuss the latest round of tariffs and retaliation by china and what that could mean for the u.s. and global economy aluaalexis crow at price water s coopers and steve liesman is here as well we've talked, steve, about who actually pays these tariffs. we know it's the importers, not the chinese. here's my question though. we talked to jane last hour about the workarounds, people move the stuff to vietnam or at least ship it around is there a way that china ultimately pays even if they're not the ones who are directly paying >> if they lose the business they pay, they can reduce their profit margins they can pay that way. ultimately, somebody's paying. you don't create money, well, i guess you can if you're a large central bank, perhaps or the government, you can create money out of thin air, i correct myself on that, but in general, one does not create money out of thin air so these are being paid and in general, the belief that what they call the incidence.
these go directly to the treasury it's not exactly the way it works. dig deeper into this and discuss the latest round of tariffs and retaliation by china and what that could mean for the u.s. and global economy aluaalexis crow at price water s coopers and steve liesman is here as well we've talked, steve, about who actually pays these tariffs. we know it's the importers, not the chinese. here's my question though. we talked to jane last hour about the workarounds, people move the stuff to...